干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.7717/peerj.12311
	The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios
	Guan, Jingyun; Li, Moyan; Ju, Xifeng; Lin, Jun; Wu, Jianguo; Zheng, Jianghua
通讯作者	Zheng, JH (corresponding author), Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China. ; Zheng, JH (corresponding author), Xinjiang Univ, Key Lab Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China. ; Zheng, JH (corresponding author), Xinjiang Univ, Inst Arid Ecol & Environm, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	PEERJ
ISSN	2167-8359
出版年	2021
卷号	9
英文摘要	Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 +/- 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 x 10(6) km(2) and 1.55 x 10(6) km(2), respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.
英文关键词	Potential habitat Shared socioeconomic pathways Climate change Maximum entropy Desert locust
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000712630000002
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; GEOGRAPHICAL-DISTRIBUTION ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; ORTHOPTERA ; INDICATOR ; SELECTION ; ACCURACY ; PLAGUE ; EXTENT
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构	新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368267
作者单位	[Guan, Jingyun; Li, Moyan; Ju, Xifeng; Zheng, Jianghua] Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China; [Guan, Jingyun; Li, Moyan; Ju, Xifeng; Zheng, Jianghua] Xinjiang Univ, Key Lab Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China; [Guan, Jingyun] Xinjiang Univ Finance & Econ, Coll Tourism, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China; [Lin, Jun; Wu, Jianguo] Locust & Rodent Control Headquarters Xinjiang, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China; [Zheng, Jianghua] Xinjiang Univ, Inst Arid Ecol & Environm, Urumqi, Xinjiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guan, Jingyun,Li, Moyan,Ju, Xifeng,et al. The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios[J]. 新疆大学,2021,9.
APA	Guan, Jingyun,Li, Moyan,Ju, Xifeng,Lin, Jun,Wu, Jianguo,&Zheng, Jianghua.(2021).The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios.PEERJ,9.
MLA	Guan, Jingyun,et al."The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios".PEERJ 9(2021).