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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126864
	A time-varying drought identification and frequency analyzation method: A case study of Jinsha River Basin
	Ju, Xiaopei; Wang, Yuankun; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Xu, Pengcheng; Wu, Jichun; Ma, Tao; Liu, Jiufu; Zhang, Jianyun
通讯作者	Wang, D (corresponding author), Nanjing Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Engn, Dept Hydrosci, Key Lab Surficial Geochem,Minist Educ,State Key L, Nanjing, Peoples R China. ; Wang, YK (corresponding author), North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Water Resources & Hydropower Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2021
卷号	603
英文摘要	The traditional drought identification indices are usually based on the assumption of stationarity, which should no longer act as a fundamental and central theory of hydrological studies in global warming context. This study develops a time-varying framework for drought identification, characterization, and frequency analyzation: firstly, a nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index (mnSPI) is developed to modify the time-varying linear relationships with both distribution parameters and clarify the explicit expressions incorporating large-scale climate indices as covariates as well. Then time-varying copulas are employed to evaluate the potential risk of drought events. As one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions in response to climate change, the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is selected as the study area to test the framework. Our results indicate that comparing with the traditional SPI, the mnSPI is superior in disclosing the trend of temporal and spatial changes of JRB over 1969-2018. In general, drought events have experienced a trend of first slowing down and then aggravating, while severely arid areas have shifted from the northwest to the central and eastern regions, and then to the southwest in JRB. Besides, it is likewise important to consider nonstationarity when carrying out the drought monitoring and early warning system (M&EW). Still more work needs to be done in dynamically identifying droughts involving teleconnection of climate factors.
英文关键词	Drought identification Frequency analyzation Nonstationarity Jinsha River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000706313000049
WOS关键词	RETURN PERIOD ; CHINA ; CLIMATE ; VARIABILITY ; DESIGN ; PRECIPITATION ; STATIONARITY ; INDEX
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
来源机构	南京大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368140
作者单位	[Ju, Xiaopei; Wang, Dong; Wu, Jichun] Nanjing Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Engn, Dept Hydrosci, Key Lab Surficial Geochem,Minist Educ,State Key L, Nanjing, Peoples R China; [Wang, Yuankun] North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Water Resources & Hydropower Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Singh, Vijay P.] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA; [Singh, Vijay P.] Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA; [Xu, Pengcheng] Yangzhou Univ, Coll Hydraul Sci & Engn, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; [Ma, Tao; Liu, Jiufu; Zhang, Jianyun] Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, Nanjing, Peoples R China; [Singh, Vijay P.] UAE Univ, Natl Water Ctr, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ju, Xiaopei,Wang, Yuankun,Wang, Dong,et al. A time-varying drought identification and frequency analyzation method: A case study of Jinsha River Basin[J]. 南京大学,2021,603.
APA	Ju, Xiaopei.,Wang, Yuankun.,Wang, Dong.,Singh, Vijay P..,Xu, Pengcheng.,...&Zhang, Jianyun.(2021).A time-varying drought identification and frequency analyzation method: A case study of Jinsha River Basin.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,603.
MLA	Ju, Xiaopei,et al."A time-varying drought identification and frequency analyzation method: A case study of Jinsha River Basin".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 603(2021).