干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105868
	Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment
	Ju, Jiali; Wu, Chuanhao; Yeh, Pat J-F; Dai, Heng; Hu, Bill X.
通讯作者	Wu, CH (corresponding author), Jinan Univ, Dept Ecol & Hydrobiol, Guangzhou 510632, Peoples R China. ; Dai, H (corresponding author), China Univ Geosci, State Key Lab Biogeol & Environm Geol, Wuhan 430078, Peoples R China. ; Dai, H (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
出版年	2021
卷号	264
英文摘要	To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, the Paris Climate Agreement strives to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. The large socioeconomic costs of extreme weather events make this target crucial for the impact assessments of 1.5 degrees C warming. Using four extreme precipitation indices, this study presents a global assessment of precipitation extremes projections under 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming targets based on the Community Earth System Model low warming (CESM-LWR) experiment. The uncertainties in precipitation extremes projections due to model internal variability (IV) and warming scenario (WS) are quantified by using the variance-based hierarchical uncertainty analysis. Results indicate that both warming targets are expected to exacerbate the extreme wetness events (RX1day and RX5day) and precipitation intensity (SDII) in most global regions, and to intensify the consecutive dry days (CDD) in tropical regions. The additional 0.5 degrees C warming will increase RX1day, RX5day and SDII over many global regions (e.g., northern high latitudes and central Africa), while decrease (increase) the frequency of CDD in northern high latitudes, central Africa, and eastern South America (in some arid regions and Amazon). Our uncertainty analysis indicates large spatiotemporal variability in the uncertainties of IV and WS. Overall, IV contributes to 80% of the uncertainties in all projected precipitation extremes and this contribution tends to diminish towards the end of this century at the interannual scale, while WS contributes to <20% of the uncertainties. IV (WS) uncertainty is the lowest (largest) in Greenland, northern Europe, Australia, northeastern and southeastern Asia, and Amazon.
英文关键词	Precipitation extremes projections 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming targets CESM-LWR Uncertainty
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000709704700002
WOS关键词	CMIP5 MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLES ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; MANN-KENDALL ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; 2-DEGREES-C ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; INDEXES ; EVENTS ; SIMULATIONS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368114
作者单位	[Ju, Jiali; Hu, Bill X.] China Univ Geosci, Sch Water Resources & Environm, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China; [Wu, Chuanhao] Jinan Univ, Dept Ecol & Hydrobiol, Guangzhou 510632, Peoples R China; [Yeh, Pat J-F] Monash Univ, Sch Engn, Discipline Civil Engn, Malaysia Campus, Subang Jaya, Malaysia; [Dai, Heng] China Univ Geosci, State Key Lab Biogeol & Environm Geol, Wuhan 430078, Peoples R China; [Dai, Heng] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Hu, Bill X.] Green Dev Inst Zhaoqing, Zhaoqing 526000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ju, Jiali,Wu, Chuanhao,Yeh, Pat J-F,et al. Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,264.
APA	Ju, Jiali,Wu, Chuanhao,Yeh, Pat J-F,Dai, Heng,&Hu, Bill X..(2021).Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,264.
MLA	Ju, Jiali,et al."Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 264(2021).