干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11442-021-1897-x
	Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China
	Yin Yunhe; Deng Haoyu; Ma Danyang; Wu Shaohong
通讯作者	Wu, SH (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China. ; Wu, SH (corresponding author), Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
ISSN	1009-637X
EISSN	1861-9568
出版年	2021
卷号	31 期号:9 页码:1261-1282
英文摘要	Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone (AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period (2041-2070) to the long-term period (2071-2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071-2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach -96.00 +/- 46.95 gC center dot m(-2)center dot a(-1), and the rate of change of the NPP would reach -3.56 +/- 3.40 gC center dot m(-2)center dot a(-1). The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.
英文关键词	climate change risk assessment arid humid transition zone NPP ecosystem
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000692383300002
WOS关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; DYNAMICS ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; TEMPERATURE
WOS类目	Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368016
作者单位	[Yin Yunhe; Deng Haoyu; Wu Shaohong] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; [Ma Danyang] Henan Prov Dev & Reform Commiss, Zhengzhou 450018, Peoples R China; [Wu Shaohong] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Yunhe,Deng Haoyu,Ma Danyang,et al. Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2021,31(9):1261-1282.
APA	Yin Yunhe,Deng Haoyu,Ma Danyang,&Wu Shaohong.(2021).Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,31(9),1261-1282.
MLA	Yin Yunhe,et al."Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 31.9(2021):1261-1282.