干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.013
	Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia
	Yao Jun-Qiang; Chen Jing; Zhang Tong-Wen; Dilinuer, Tuoliewubieke; Mao Wei-Yi
通讯作者	Yao, JQ (corresponding author), China Meteorol Adm, Inst Desert Meteorol, Urumqi 830002, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
ISSN	1674-9278
出版年	2021
卷号	12 期号:2 页码:172-186
英文摘要	Precipitation is particularly scarce in arid Central Asia (CA), and is expected to be severely impacted by future warming, and the assessment of the stationarity of precipitation variability is important for managing surface water resources in this region. In this study, we investigated the statistics of stationarity in the totals and extremes of precipitation in CA based on the longest observational records (1881-2006), tree-ring reconstructed records (1756-2012 and 1760-2015), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations, applying the autocorrelation function and testing criteria established based on the statistical definitions of stationarity. We analyzed the longest daily precipitation record (Tashkent station, 1881-2006) and found that the autocorrelation coefficient of the precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) were statistically insignificant for all lags, implying stationary behavior. Regionally, nearly all the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database (GHCN-D) observatory sites (1925-2005) indicated likely stationary behavior. The reconstructed records were also indistinguishable from a random process. For the CMIP5 models, the simulated and projected PRCPTOT closely approximated a purely random process; however, the projected Rx1day maintained non-stationary means in most of the models under the representative concentration pathway (RCPs), implying that extreme events would increase in the future. The mean precipitation changes (Delta P) can be expressed as an exponential function depending on the length of the successive mean periods (mu) and variance (sigma(2)). The Delta P of the next decade is projected to be within +/- 14.8% of the previous decades mean annual PRCPTOT over CA. The higher the RCPs, the higher the Delta P over CA. The results show that the detection and prediction of precipitation change will be challenging in arid CA.
英文关键词	Stationarity Precipitation Extreme precipitation Variance Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000654345800003
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS ; WET ; DRY ; VEGETATION ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/367845
作者单位	[Yao Jun-Qiang; Chen Jing; Zhang Tong-Wen; Dilinuer, Tuoliewubieke; Mao Wei-Yi] China Meteorol Adm, Inst Desert Meteorol, Urumqi 830002, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yao Jun-Qiang,Chen Jing,Zhang Tong-Wen,et al. Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia[J],2021,12(2):172-186.
APA	Yao Jun-Qiang,Chen Jing,Zhang Tong-Wen,Dilinuer, Tuoliewubieke,&Mao Wei-Yi.(2021).Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,12(2),172-186.
MLA	Yao Jun-Qiang,et al."Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 12.2(2021):172-186.