干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt

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DOI	10.1007/s11356-021-17189-9
	Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt
	Gado, Tamer A.; Mohameden, Mahmoud B.; Rashwan, Ibrahim M. H.
通讯作者	Gado, TA (corresponding author), Tanta Univ, Dept Irrigat & Hydraul Engn, Fac Engn, Tanta, Egypt.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
ISSN	0944-1344
EISSN	1614-7499
出版年	2022
英文摘要	This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071-2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08-7.41 degrees C, 4.55-7.89 degrees C, and 3.88-7.23 degrees C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9 degrees C (10 degrees C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2 degrees C (1.35 degrees C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.
英文关键词	Bias correction Variance scaling Representative concentration pathway Regional climate model Temperature Egypt
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000713975300007
WOS关键词	TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; TRENDS ; UNCERTAINTY ; SELECTION ; IRAQ
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/367716
作者单位	[Gado, Tamer A.; Mohameden, Mahmoud B.; Rashwan, Ibrahim M. H.] Tanta Univ, Dept Irrigat & Hydraul Engn, Fac Engn, Tanta, Egypt
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gado, Tamer A.,Mohameden, Mahmoud B.,Rashwan, Ibrahim M. H.. Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt[J],2022.
APA	Gado, Tamer A.,Mohameden, Mahmoud B.,&Rashwan, Ibrahim M. H..(2022).Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH.
MLA	Gado, Tamer A.,et al."Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH (2022).