干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11356-021-17050-z
	Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models
	Yasin, Mubashra; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Khaliq, Tasneem; Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad; Niaz, Salma; Gaiser, Thomas; Ghafoor, Iqra; ul Hassan, Hafiz Suboor; Qasim, Muhammad; Hoogenboom, Gerrit
通讯作者	Yasin, M (corresponding author), Ayub Agr Res Inst, Sugarcane Res Inst, Faisalabad, Pakistan. ; Habib-ur-Rahman, M (corresponding author), Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. ; Habib-ur-Rahman, M (corresponding author), MNS Univ Agr Multan, Dept Agron, Multan 60650, Pakistan.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
ISSN	0944-1344
EISSN	1614-7499
出版年	2022
英文摘要	Future climate scenarios are predicting considerable threats to sustainable maize production in arid and semi-arid regions. These adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting modern agricultural tools to assess and develop successful adaptation practices. A multi-model approach (climate and crop) was used to assess the impacts and uncertainties of climate change on maize crop. An extensive field study was conducted to explore the temporal thermal variations on maize hybrids grown at farmer's fields for ten sowing dates during two consecutive growing years. Data about phenology, morphology, biomass development, and yield were recorded by adopting standard procedures and protocols. The CSM-CERES, APSIM, and CSM-IXIM-Maize models were calibrated and evaluated. Five GCMs among 29 were selected based on classification into different groups and uncertainty to predict climatic changes in the future. The results predicted that there would be a rise in temperature (1.57-3.29 degrees C) during the maize growing season in five General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using RCP 8.5 scenarios for the mid-century (2040-2069) as compared with the baseline (1980-2015). The CERES-Maize and APSIM-Maize model showed lower root mean square error values (2.78 and 5.41), higher d-index (0.85 and 0.87) along reliable R-2 (0.89 and 0.89), respectively for days to anthesis and maturity, while the CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for growth parameters (leaf area index, total dry matter) and yield with reasonably good statistical indices. The CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for all hybrids during both years whereas climate models, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-MR, showed less uncertain results for climate change impacts. Maize models along GCMs predicted a reduction in yield (8-55%) than baseline. Maize crop may face a high yield decline that could be overcome by modifying the sowing dates and fertilizer (fertigation) and heat and drought-tolerant hybrids.
英文关键词	Sowing time Maize hybrids CERES-Maize CSM-IXIM APSIM-Maize Phenology LAI TDM Yield Climate variability Adaptation Sustainable maize production
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000712505900013
WOS关键词	GROWN OFF-SEASON ; ZEA-MAYS L. ; CERES-MAIZE ; CROPPING SYSTEM ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; YIELD ; PROJECTIONS ; SIMULATION ; APSIM ; HEAT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/367599
作者单位	[Yasin, Mubashra; Niaz, Salma] Ayub Agr Res Inst, Sugarcane Res Inst, Faisalabad, Pakistan; [Ahmad, Ashfaq] Asian Disaster Preparedness Ctr ADPC, Islamabad, Pakistan; [Khaliq, Tasneem] Univ Agr Faisalabad, Dept Agron, Agroclimatol Lab, Faisalabad, Pakistan; [Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad; Gaiser, Thomas] Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, D-53115 Bonn, Germany; [Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad; Ghafoor, Iqra] MNS Univ Agr Multan, Dept Agron, Multan 60650, Pakistan; [ul Hassan, Hafiz Suboor] Natl Inst Hlth, Sera Proc Lab, Islamabad, Pakistan; [Qasim, Muhammad] Jonkoping Univ, Dept Econ Finance & Stat, Jonkoping, Sweden; [Hoogenboom, Gerrit] Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, 184 Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yasin, Mubashra,Ahmad, Ashfaq,Khaliq, Tasneem,et al. Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models[J],2022.
APA	Yasin, Mubashra.,Ahmad, Ashfaq.,Khaliq, Tasneem.,Habib-ur-Rahman, Muhammad.,Niaz, Salma.,...&Hoogenboom, Gerrit.(2022).Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH.
MLA	Yasin, Mubashra,et al."Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH (2022).