干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan

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DOI	10.1002/joc.7321
	Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan
	Ullah, Irfan; Ma, Xieyao; Yin, Jun; Saleem, Farhan; Syed, Sidra; Omer, Abubaker; Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom; Liu, Mengyang; Arshad, Muhammad
通讯作者	Ma, XY (corresponding author), Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2021-08
英文摘要	Long-term drought monitoring and its assessment are of great importance for meteorological disaster risk management. The recurrent spells of heat waves and droughts have severely affected the environmental conditions worldwide, including Pakistan. The present work sought to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in drought characteristics over Pakistan during Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons. The role of large-scale circulation and interannual mode of climate variability is further explored to identify the physical mechanisms associated with droughts in the region. Monthly precipitation and temperature data (1983-2019) from 53 meteorological stations were used to study drought characteristics, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope, and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were applied on the drought index to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the historical trend. The state-of-the-art Bayesian Dynamic Linear model was further used to analyse large-scale climate drivers of droughts, revealed an increase in drought severity, mostly over arid to semiarid regions for both cropping seasons. While temperature played a significant role in defining droughts over dry and hot seasons, rainfall is influential over the western disturbances influenced region. The analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns revealed that large-scale changes in wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and geopotential height anomalies are the likely drivers of droughts in the region. We found that Nino4, sea surface temperature, and multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO4.0) Index are the most influential factors for seasonal droughts across Pakistan. Overall, the findings provide a better understanding of drought-prone areas in the region, and this information is of potential use for mitigating and managing drought risks.
英文关键词	Bayesian dynamic linear model climate change drought large-scale drivers Pakistan
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000683751600001
WOS关键词	SCALE CLIMATE INDEXES ; WATER-RESOURCE AVAILABILITY ; SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; CENTRAL-ASIA ; PRECIPITATION ; ENSO ; TELECONNECTIONS ; RAINFALL ; IMPACTS ; EVENTS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/367566
作者单位	[Ullah, Irfan; Liu, Mengyang; Arshad, Muhammad] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China; [Ma, Xieyao; Yin, Jun; Omer, Abubaker] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; [Saleem, Farhan] Chinese Acad Sci, Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Saleem, Farhan] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Syed, Sidra] Univ Peshawar, Inst Peace & Conflicts Studies, Peshawar, Pakistan; [Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Sch Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Aerosol Cloud Precipitat,China Meteorol A, Nanjing, Peoples R China; [Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom] Wollo Univ, Dept Phys, Dessie, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ullah, Irfan,Ma, Xieyao,Yin, Jun,et al. Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2021.
APA	Ullah, Irfan.,Ma, Xieyao.,Yin, Jun.,Saleem, Farhan.,Syed, Sidra.,...&Arshad, Muhammad.(2021).Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA	Ullah, Irfan,et al."Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021).