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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4
	Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan
	Ashraf, Muhammad; Arshad, Adnan; Patel, Praharsh M.; Khan, Adeel; Qamar, Huma; Siti-Sundari, Ristina; Ghani, Muhammad Usman; Amin, Ali; Babar, Jamilur Rehman
通讯作者	Ashraf, M (corresponding author), Univ Balochistan, Dept Disaster Management & Dev Studies, Quetta 87300, Pakistan. ; Arshad, A (corresponding author), China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
出版年	2021-07
英文摘要	Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and semiarid region of Pakistan faces frequent droughts. Farming communities affected by drought disasters are causing serious threats to livelihood, global food crises, environmental migration, and sustainable development. The existing study was designed to quantify two key components through (1) analysis of agrometeorological data (1981-2017) with exploratory data analysis and Mann-Kendall trend analysis; (2) extensive field survey (200 households). The multivariate probit model has been run to detect determinants of coping and adaptive strategies by farmers. Our results showed that the farmers supposed that temperature and rainfall were highly fluctuating in recent years equally. Farmers adopted different coping and adaptive measures that include crop diversification, input adjustment, water management, asset depletion, income diversification, and migration to sustain their livelihood during stress periods. The agrometeorological data analysis revealed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought risks increased significantly, and the survey results projected that 64.7% of the population is exposed to drought directly or indirectly. Sen's slope quantification resulted in (0.025 degrees C) rise in temperature, (-2.936 mm) decline in rainfall year(-1). Modeling future scenarios resulted in an increase in temperature up to 0.7 degrees C, 1.2 degrees C, and a decrease in precipitation up to 161.48 mm, 103.5 mm in 2040 and 2060. The study evaluated a huge gap in the provision of drought risk resilience services, crop insurance, and climate-smart training practices to build capacities among farmers to cope with the impacts of extreme weather conditions. Our research might provide the groundwork to upgrade actions to drought prevention and early warning in water scarcity areas.
英文关键词	Climate risks Drought characteristics Extreme weather events Food security Farmer's perceptions
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000676075200001
WOS关键词	FOOD SECURITY ; ADAPTATION ; VULNERABILITY ; EXPLORATION ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
来源机构	兰州大学 ; 中国农业大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/367542
作者单位	[Ashraf, Muhammad; Babar, Jamilur Rehman] Univ Balochistan, Dept Disaster Management & Dev Studies, Quetta 87300, Pakistan; [Arshad, Adnan] China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China; [Patel, Praharsh M.] Penn State Univ, Environm & Food Econ Dept, State Coll, PA USA; [Khan, Adeel] TERI Sch Adv Studies, Dept Energy & Environm, Delhi 110070, India; [Qamar, Huma] Ayub Agr Res Inst, Oilseeds Res Inst, Faisalabad, Pakistan; [Siti-Sundari, Ristina] Perjuangan Univ, Tasikmalaya 46115, Indonesia; [Ghani, Muhammad Usman] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Pastoral Agr Sci & Technol, State Key Lab Grassland Agroecosyst, Lanzhou 730020, Peoples R China; [Amin, Ali] Hagler Bailly, Islamabad 46000, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ashraf, Muhammad,Arshad, Adnan,Patel, Praharsh M.,et al. Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan[J]. 兰州大学, 中国农业大学,2021.
APA	Ashraf, Muhammad.,Arshad, Adnan.,Patel, Praharsh M..,Khan, Adeel.,Qamar, Huma.,...&Babar, Jamilur Rehman.(2021).Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan.NATURAL HAZARDS.
MLA	Ashraf, Muhammad,et al."Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan".NATURAL HAZARDS (2021).