干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

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	气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测
其他题名	Predicting suitable distribution areas of Juniperus przewalskii in Qinghai Province under climate change scenarios
	张伟萍; 胡云云; 李智华; 冯雪萍; 李登武
来源期刊	应用生态学报
ISSN	1001-9332
出版年	2021
卷号	32 期号:7 页码:2514-2524
中文摘要	祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061-2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明: Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减, SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。
英文摘要	Juniperus przewalskii is important for water and soil conservation. It is one of the native tree species suitable for afforestation and greening in high-cold and arid areas of Qinghai Province. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of J. przewalskii in Qinghai Province under the climate change scenario will provide theoretical guidance for its management,introduction,and cultivation. In this study,the current potential distribution of J. przewalskii was simulated firstly based on 88 effective distributional records from field investigation and data collection via Maxent model and ArcGIS spatial analysis. We analyzed dominant factors affecting the potential distribution of J. przewa-lskii by Jackknife test and correlation coefficient. The distribution of J. przewalskii under three climate change scenarios (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) with the climate model data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) were predicted for 2061 - 2080. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Maxent model was greater than 0.92,suggesting a good predictive performance. Under current climatic condition,the suitable distribution area of J. przewalskii was mainly located in the eastern part of Qinghai Province,with the suitable area accounted for 11.2% of the total. The dominant factors affecting the distribution of J. przewalskii were altitude,annual precipitation,the minimum temperature of coldest month,and slope,with a cumulative contribution rate of 85.9%. The suitable areas of J. przewalskii altered under the three future climate scenarios. The suitable areas would shrink under the SSP245 scenario and expand under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. The suitable area of J. przewalskii would have the most obvious expansion under the SSP126 climate situation, with the expanding areas being mainly located in Zeku County,the north-central part of Henan Mongolian Autonomous County,and the southeast of Qilian County. Under three climatic scenarios,the suitable area of J. przewalskii would gradually migrate to high altitudes,but without clear altitudinal and longitudinal shifts.
中文关键词	祁连圆柏 ; 气候变化 ; Maxent模型 ; 稳定分布区
英文关键词	Juniperus przewalskii climate change Maxent model stable distribution area
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Forestry
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7011248
来源机构	西北农林科技大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/365374
作者单位	张伟萍, 西北农林科技大学林学院, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国.; 冯雪萍, 西北农林科技大学林学院, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国.; 李登武, 西北农林科技大学林学院, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国.; 胡云云, 国家林业和草原局西北调查规划设计院, 旱区生态水文与灾害防治国家林业和草原局重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国.; 李智华, 国家林业和草原局西北调查规划设计院, 旱区生态水文与灾害防治国家林业和草原局重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张伟萍,胡云云,李智华,等. 气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测[J]. 西北农林科技大学,2021,32(7):2514-2524.
APA	张伟萍,胡云云,李智华,冯雪萍,&李登武.(2021).气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测.应用生态学报,32(7),2514-2524.
MLA	张伟萍,et al."气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测".应用生态学报 32.7(2021):2514-2524.