干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori

Arid

	Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach
	Farahat Emad A; Refaat Aliaa M
来源期刊	山地科学学报
ISSN	1672-6316
出版年	2021
卷号	18 期号:5 页码:1672-6316
英文摘要	Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC (Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of <1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.
英文关键词	Climate change Conservation MaxEnt Mountains Moringa peregrina Arid lands
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6959437
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/365211
作者单位	Farahat Emad A, Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo, 11795, Egypt.; Refaat Aliaa M, Botany Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, 11566, Egypt.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Farahat Emad A,Refaat Aliaa M. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach[J],2021,18(5):1672-6316.
APA	Farahat Emad A,&Refaat Aliaa M.(2021).Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach.山地科学学报,18(5),1672-6316.
MLA	Farahat Emad A,et al."Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach".山地科学学报 18.5(2021):1672-6316.