干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia

Arid

	Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia
	Yao Junqiang; Chen Jing; Zhang Tongwen; Dilinuer Tuoliewubieke; Mao Weiyi
来源期刊	气候变化研究进展
ISSN	1674-9278
出版年	2021
卷号	12 期号:2 页码:1674-9278
英文摘要	Precipitation is particularly scarce in arid Central Asia (CA), and is expected to be severely impacted by future warming, and the assessment of the stationarity of precipitation variability is important for managing surface water resources in this region. In this study, we investigated the statistics of stationarity in the totals and extremes of precipitation in CA based on the longest observational records (1881-2006), tree-ring reconstructed records (1756-2012 and 1760-2015), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations, applying the autocorrelation function and testing criteria established based on the statistical definitions of stationarity. We analyzed the longest daily precipitation record (Tashkent station, 1881-2006) and found that the autocorrelation coefficient of the precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) were statistically insignificant for all lags, implying stationary behavior. Regionally, nearly all the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database (GHCN-D) observatory sites (1925-2005) indicated likely stationary behavior. The reconstructed records were also indistinguishable from a random process. For the CMIP5 models, the simulated and projected PRCPTOT closely approximated a purely random process; however, the projected Rx1day maintained non-stationary means in most of the models under the representative concentration pathway (RCPs), implying that extreme events would increase in the future. The mean precipitation changes (∆P) can be expressed as an exponential function depending on the length of the successive mean periods (mu) and variance (sigma~2). The ∆P of the next decade is projected to be within 14.8% of the previous decades mean annual PRCPTOT over CA. The higher the RCPs, the higher the ∆P over CA. The results show that the detection and prediction of precipitation change will be challenging in arid CA.
英文关键词	Stationarity Precipitation Extreme precipitation Variance Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	中国
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Science & Technology - Other Topics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6980520
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/365200
作者单位	Yao Junqiang, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China.; Chen Jing, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China.; Zhang Tongwen, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China.; Dilinuer Tuoliewubieke, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China.; Mao Weiyi, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yao Junqiang,Chen Jing,Zhang Tongwen,et al. Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia[J],2021,12(2):1674-9278.
APA	Yao Junqiang,Chen Jing,Zhang Tongwen,Dilinuer Tuoliewubieke,&Mao Weiyi.(2021).Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia.气候变化研究进展,12(2),1674-9278.
MLA	Yao Junqiang,et al."Stationarity in the variability of arid precipitation: A case study of arid Central Asia".气候变化研究进展 12.2(2021):1674-9278.