干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China

Arid

	Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China
	Chen Li; Xu Changchun; Li Xiaofei
来源期刊	干旱区科学
ISSN	1674-6767
出版年	2021
卷号	13 期号:6 页码:1674-6767
英文摘要	The extreme temperature has more outstanding impact on ecology and water resources in arid regions than the average temperature.Using the downscaled daily temperature data from 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) models of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) and the observation data,this paper analyzed the changes in temporal and spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes,i.e.,the maximum temperature (T_(max)) and minimum temperature (Tmin),in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China over the period 2020-2050 based on the evaluation of preferred Multi-Model Ensemble (MME).Results showed that the Partial Least Square ensemble mean participated by Preferred Models (PM-PLS) was better representing the temporal change and spatial distribution of temperature extremes during 1961-2005 and was chosen to project the future change.In 2020-2050,the increasing rate of T_(max) (Tmin) under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 will be 2.0 (1.6) times that under RCP4.5,and that of Tmin will be larger than that of T_(max) under each corresponding RCP.Tmin will keep contributing more to global warming than T_(max).The spatial distribution characteristics of T_(max) and Tmin under the two RCPs will overall the same;but compared to the baseline period (1986-2005),the increments of T_(max) and Tmin in plain area will be larger than those in mountainous area.With the emission concentration increased,however,the response of T_(max) in mountainous area will be more sensitive than that in plain area,and that of Tmin will be equivalently sensitive in mountainous area and plain area.The impacts induced by Tmin will be universal and farreaching.Results of spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes indicate that large increases in the magnitude of warming in the basin may occur in the future.The projections can provide the scientific basis for water and land plan management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the inland river basin.
英文关键词	temperature extremes multi-model ensemble RCP projection Kaidu-Kongqi River basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7025972
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/365051
作者单位	Chen Li, College of Resource and Environment Sciences,Xinjiang University, MOE Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830000, China.; Li Xiaofei, College of Resource and Environment Sciences,Xinjiang University, MOE Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830000, China.; Xu Changchun, College of Resource and Environment Sciences,Xinjiang University;;School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science,University of Oklahoma, MOE Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology;;, Urumqi;;Norman, ;;USA 830000;;OK 73072.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Li,Xu Changchun,Li Xiaofei. Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China[J],2021,13(6):1674-6767.
APA	Chen Li,Xu Changchun,&Li Xiaofei.(2021).Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China.干旱区科学,13(6),1674-6767.
MLA	Chen Li,et al."Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China".干旱区科学 13.6(2021):1674-6767.