干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w13152035
	Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula
	Andrade, Cristina; Contente, Joana; Santos, Joao Andrade
通讯作者	Andrade, C (corresponding author), Nat Hazards Res Ctr NHRCipt, Inst Politecn Tomar, Estr Serra, P-2300313 Tomar, Portugal. ; Andrade, C (corresponding author), Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro UTAD, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci CITAB, P-5001801 Vila Real, Portugal.
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2021
卷号	13 期号:15
英文摘要	The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim, three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinc Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961-1990, using gridded observational data (E-OBS), and subsequently, for the periods 2011-2040 (short range) and 2041-2070 (medium range), using an ensemble of six regional climate model (RCM) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong (weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing (increasing) trends for precipitation (temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041-2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucia, Region de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragon province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.
英文关键词	aridity indices climate change projections EURO-CORDEX
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000682212200001
WOS关键词	SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION ; PRECIPITATION ; INDEXES ; VARIABILITY ; EUROPE ; TEMPERATURE ; SCENARIOS ; EXTREMES ; REGIONS ; TRENDS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/364834
作者单位	[Andrade, Cristina; Contente, Joana] Nat Hazards Res Ctr NHRCipt, Inst Politecn Tomar, Estr Serra, P-2300313 Tomar, Portugal; [Andrade, Cristina; Santos, Joao Andrade] Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro UTAD, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci CITAB, P-5001801 Vila Real, Portugal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrade, Cristina,Contente, Joana,Santos, Joao Andrade. Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula[J],2021,13(15).
APA	Andrade, Cristina,Contente, Joana,&Santos, Joao Andrade.(2021).Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula.WATER,13(15).
MLA	Andrade, Cristina,et al."Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula".WATER 13.15(2021).