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DOI	10.1016/j.renene.2021.09.060
	Aggregated independent forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance
	Hassan, Muhammed A.; Al-Ghussain, Loiy; Ahmad, Adnan Darwish; Abubaker, Ahmad M.; Khalil, Adel
通讯作者	Hassan, MA (corresponding author), Cairo Univ, Fac Engn, Mech Power Engn Dept, Giza 12613, Egypt.
来源期刊	RENEWABLE ENERGY
ISSN	0960-1481
EISSN	1879-0682
出版年	2022
卷号	181 页码:365-383
英文摘要	In this study, single and aggregated forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance are assessed. The models are the standard persistent model and four newly proposed static, dynamic, moving average, and amplified persistent models. These sub-forecasters are aggregated using equal, annual optimal, and monthly optimal weights. A particle swarm optimizer was used to find those weights. Measured data, obtained from two desert sites for the years 2015-2018, was used for fitting and training the different models, while the data of the year 2019 was used to test their prediction capabilities. For the single forecasters, the dynamic model is the most accurate, followed by the static and average models. When the aggregated model of annual optimal weights was tested, the three contributing forecasters were the dynamic, average, and amplified models. The dynamic forecaster held the largest weight due to its prediction superiority during overcast and partially cloudy days. When monthly optimal weights were used, all forecasters contributed, and the dynamic model held the largest weight during winter but not in the summer when the clear sky condition is dominant. The aggregated model was the most precise, with relative mean square errors lower than 15.0% and coefficients of determination higher than 98.8%. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Solar radiation forecasting Global horizontal irradiance Aggregated model Recurrent neural network Persistent model Regression
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000704082300001
WOS关键词	ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK ; SOLAR-RADIATION ; ENSEMBLE METHODS ; GENERATION ; MODEL
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Energy & Fuels
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Energy & Fuels
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/364508
作者单位	[Hassan, Muhammed A.; Khalil, Adel] Cairo Univ, Fac Engn, Mech Power Engn Dept, Giza 12613, Egypt; [Al-Ghussain, Loiy] Univ Kentucky, Mech Engn Dept, Lexington, KY 40506 USA; [Ahmad, Adnan Darwish; Abubaker, Ahmad M.] Univ Kentucky, Inst Res Technol Dev IR4TD, Lexington, KY 40506 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hassan, Muhammed A.,Al-Ghussain, Loiy,Ahmad, Adnan Darwish,et al. Aggregated independent forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance[J],2022,181:365-383.
APA	Hassan, Muhammed A.,Al-Ghussain, Loiy,Ahmad, Adnan Darwish,Abubaker, Ahmad M.,&Khalil, Adel.(2022).Aggregated independent forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance.RENEWABLE ENERGY,181,365-383.
MLA	Hassan, Muhammed A.,et al."Aggregated independent forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance".RENEWABLE ENERGY 181(2022):365-383.