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DOI	10.1007/s10113-021-01812-z
	Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region
	Volk, Johanna; Gornott, Christoph; Sieber, Stefan; Lana, Marcos Alberto
通讯作者	Volk, J (corresponding author), Univ Hohenheim, Fac Agr Sci, Dept Management Crop Water Stress Trop & Subtrop, Stuttgart, Germany.
来源期刊	REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN	1436-3798
EISSN	1436-378X
出版年	2021
卷号	21 期号:4
英文摘要	Cereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region's semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritized agriculture as an adaptation sector in its intended nationally determined contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980-2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020-2060 and 2061-2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020-2060 and 20% in 2061-2099 compared to the 1980-2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.
英文关键词	Maize Climate change Adaptation Model Tanzania NDC
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000700386400001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; DEFICIT IRRIGATION ; AGRICULTURE ; GROWTH ; MODEL ; TEMPERATURE ; SYSTEMS ; AFRICA
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/364459
作者单位	[Volk, Johanna] Univ Hohenheim, Fac Agr Sci, Dept Management Crop Water Stress Trop & Subtrop, Stuttgart, Germany; [Gornott, Christoph] Univ Kassel, Fac Organ Agr Sci, Dept Agroecosyst Anal & Modelling, Kassel, Germany; [Gornott, Christoph] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; [Gornott, Christoph] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany; [Sieber, Stefan] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Muncheberg, Germany; [Sieber, Stefan] Humboldt Univ, Fac Life Sci, Dept Agr Econ, Berlin, Germany; [Lana, Marcos Alberto] Swedish Univ Agr Sci SLU, Fac Nat Resources & Agr Sci, Dept Crop Prod Ecol, Uppsala, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Volk, Johanna,Gornott, Christoph,Sieber, Stefan,et al. Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region[J],2021,21(4).
APA	Volk, Johanna,Gornott, Christoph,Sieber, Stefan,&Lana, Marcos Alberto.(2021).Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,21(4).
MLA	Volk, Johanna,et al."Can Tanzania's adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 21.4(2021).