干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-25182-6
	Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change
	Dudney, Joan; Willing, Claire E.; Das, Adrian J.; Latimer, Andrew M.; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Battles, John J.
通讯作者	Dudney, J (corresponding author), Univ Calif Davis, Dept Plant Sci, Davis, CA 95616 USA. ; Dudney, J (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
来源期刊	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
EISSN	2041-1723
出版年	2021
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4-6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8-7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0-1392.9) km(2) into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient-likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change. Climate change is expected to have major impacts on forest tree diseases. Here the authors analyse long-term data of white pine blister rust in the southern Sierra Nevada, finding evidence of climate change-driven disease range expansion that was mediated by spatially varying host-pathogen-drought interactions.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000688006200001
WOS关键词	PINE BLISTER RUST ; WHITEBARK-PINE ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; UNITED-STATES ; FOREST INSECTS ; NORTH-AMERICA ; PLANT-DISEASE ; CROP PESTS ; HOST ; PATHOGEN
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构	United States Geological Survey ; University of California, Davis ; University of California, Berkeley
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/364224
作者单位	[Dudney, Joan; Latimer, Andrew M.] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Plant Sci, Davis, CA 95616 USA; [Dudney, Joan; Willing, Claire E.; Battles, John J.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; [Willing, Claire E.] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; [Das, Adrian J.] US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Three Rivers, CA USA; [Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.] Sierra Nevada Network Inventory & Monitoring Prog, Three Rivers, CA USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dudney, Joan,Willing, Claire E.,Das, Adrian J.,et al. Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change[J]. United States Geological Survey, University of California, Davis, University of California, Berkeley,2021,12(1).
APA	Dudney, Joan,Willing, Claire E.,Das, Adrian J.,Latimer, Andrew M.,Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.,&Battles, John J..(2021).Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,12(1).
MLA	Dudney, Joan,et al."Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 12.1(2021).