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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126994
	Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change
	Wasko, Conrad; Nathan, Rory; Stein, Lina; O'Shea, Declan
通讯作者	Wasko, C (corresponding author), Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Parkville, Vic, Australia.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2021
卷号	603
英文摘要	Increases in extreme rainfall intensities as a result of climate change pose a great risk due to the possibility of increases in pluvial flooding, particularly in urban and developed areas. But evidence is emerging that the observed increases in extreme rainfall are not resulting in universal increases in flooding. Indeed, on a global scale, studies consistently find more gauge stations with decreasing rather than increasing trends in the annual maxima flood magnitude. Here, we aim to improve our understanding of how rainfall and streamflow extremes are changing and why floods are not always observed to increase despite increases in rainfall extremes. To do so, we examine trends in streamflow events using 2776 stations from the Global Runoff Data Centre, with events chosen to isolate the impact of changes to their respective rainfall and antecedent soil moisture. The analysis is limited to stations with 30 years or more of active record with the majority of stations in North America, Europe, Brazil, Oceania, and southern Africa. Consistent with physical reasoning, for more frequent events such as the annual maxima, it is found the peak 1-day rainfall event intensity is increasing approximately a rate of 6-7%/degrees C, with rarer event intensities increasing at a rate exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. We find that storm volumes are not increasing as greatly as the peak rainfall and storm durations are decreasing, pointing to an intensification of rainfall events and a peakier temporal pattern. While rainfall is intensifying, the magnitude of frequent floods (those expected to occur on average once per year) are in general decreasing, particularly in tropical and arid regions of the world. We find that this is likely due to a dominance of drying antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, the magnitude of rarer floods has, on average been increasing. We suggest this is because, for these rarer events, the increase in rainfall outweighs the decrease in soil moisture. Our results point to a worst of both world's scenario where small floods, responsible for filling our water supplies, are decreasing, while the large flood events which pose a risk to life and infrastructure, are increasing.
英文关键词	Flooding Extreme rainfall Soil moisture Trend analysis Climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000706318300067
WOS关键词	SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; ATTRIBUTION ; MAGNITUDE ; STREAMFLOW ; FREQUENCY ; SENSITIVITY ; PATTERNS ; RISK
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363934
作者单位	[Wasko, Conrad; Nathan, Rory; O'Shea, Declan] Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Parkville, Vic, Australia; [Stein, Lina] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England; [O'Shea, Declan] Univ Melbourne, Climate & Energy Coll, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wasko, Conrad,Nathan, Rory,Stein, Lina,et al. Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change[J],2021,603.
APA	Wasko, Conrad,Nathan, Rory,Stein, Lina,&O'Shea, Declan.(2021).Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,603.
MLA	Wasko, Conrad,et al."Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 603(2021).