干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impact of climate change on hydro-climatological parameters in North Cyprus: application of artificial intelligence-based statistical downscaling models

Arid

DOI	10.2166/hydro.2021.091
	Impact of climate change on hydro-climatological parameters in North Cyprus: application of artificial intelligence-based statistical downscaling models
	Elkiran, Gozen; Nourani, Vahid; Elvis, Ogodor; Abdullahi, Jazuli
通讯作者	Elkiran, G (corresponding author), Univ Tabriz, Ctr Excellence Hydroinformat, Tabriz, Iran. ; Elkiran, G (corresponding author), Univ Tabriz, Fac Civil Engn, Tabriz, Iran.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS
ISSN	1464-7141
EISSN	1465-1734
出版年	2021
英文摘要	There are many environmental challenges in water-limited places in the 21st century, particularly in dry and semi-arid regions, due to the threat of climate change caused by the greenhouse effect. This study intends to explore and assess the influence of climate change on hydro-climatological parameters using statistical downscaling and future forecasts of mean monthly precipitation and temperature throughout Famagusta (Magusa), Nicosia (Lefkosa), and Kyrenia (Girne) stations, North Cyprus. To achieve the study's goal, 13 predictors of BNU-ESM GCMs from CMIP5 were used at a grid point in the Karfas region. To find the primary predictors, GCM data were screened using mutual information (MI) and correlation coefficient (CC) feature extraction methods prior to downscaling modeling. A neural network (ANN), an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models were employed as the downscaling models. We used the best downscaling model as a benchmark for future precipitation and temperature estimates for the period 2018-2040 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the future, Famagusta and Nicosia would have up to 22% less rain, and Famagusta and Kyrenia will have 2.9% greater heat. The findings of this research could be useful in decision-making, as well as water resource management and climate change.
英文关键词	global circulation models precipitation predictors statistical downscaling temperature
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000707130400001
WOS关键词	RAINFALL ; PREDICTION ; BASIN ; VARIABLES ; NETWORKS ; RUNOFF ; WATER
WOS类目	Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363914
作者单位	[Elkiran, Gozen; Nourani, Vahid] Univ Tabriz, Ctr Excellence Hydroinformat, Tabriz, Iran; [Elkiran, Gozen; Nourani, Vahid] Univ Tabriz, Fac Civil Engn, Tabriz, Iran; [Elvis, Ogodor] Near East Univ, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, Near East Blvd, TR-99138 Nicosia, North Cyprus, Turkey; [Abdullahi, Jazuli] Baze Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Civil Engn, Abuja, Nigeria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elkiran, Gozen,Nourani, Vahid,Elvis, Ogodor,et al. Impact of climate change on hydro-climatological parameters in North Cyprus: application of artificial intelligence-based statistical downscaling models[J],2021.
APA	Elkiran, Gozen,Nourani, Vahid,Elvis, Ogodor,&Abdullahi, Jazuli.(2021).Impact of climate change on hydro-climatological parameters in North Cyprus: application of artificial intelligence-based statistical downscaling models.JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS.
MLA	Elkiran, Gozen,et al."Impact of climate change on hydro-climatological parameters in North Cyprus: application of artificial intelligence-based statistical downscaling models".JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS (2021).