干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome

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DOI	10.1111/jbi.14213
	Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome
	Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R. M.; Forrest, Matthew; Hickler, Thomas; Ohlemueller, Ralf; Singarayer, Joy S.; Valdes, Paul J.
通讯作者	Huntley, B (corresponding author), Univ Durham, Dept Biosci, Durham, England.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
ISSN	0305-0270
EISSN	1365-2699
出版年	2021
卷号	48 期号:10 页码:2418-2428
英文摘要	Aim Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent to which past biome stability predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and the extent to which projected climatic changes may lead to eventual biome changes in areas with constant past biome. Location Global. Taxon Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates. Methods Biome constancy was assessed and mapped using results from 89 dynamic global vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs of palaeoclimate experiments spanning the past 140 ka. We tested the hypothesis that terrestrial vertebrate diversity is predicted by biome constancy. We also simulated potential future vegetation, and hence potential future biome patterns, and quantified and mapped the extent of projected eventual future biome change in areas of past constant biome. Results Approximately 11% of global ice-free land had a constant biome since 140 ka. Apart from areas of constant Desert, many areas with constant biome support high species diversity. All terrestrial vertebrate groups show a strong positive relationship between biome constancy and vertebrate diversity in areas of greater diversity, but no relationship in less diverse areas. Climatic change projected by 2100 commits 46%-66% of global ice-free land, and 34%-52% of areas of past constant biome (excluding areas of constant Desert) to eventual biome change. Main conclusions Past biome stability strongly predicts vertebrate diversity in areas of higher diversity. Future climatic changes will lead to biome changes in many areas of past constant biome, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation. Some projected biome changes will result in substantial reductions in biospheric carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services.
英文关键词	amphibians biodiversity biome stability birds ecosystem services endemic bird areas HadCM3 LPJ-GUESS mammals reptiles
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Accepted, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000674064300001
WOS关键词	VEGETATION ; PATTERNS ; TEMPERATURE ; DIVERSITY ; MORTALITY ; RICHNESS ; EUROPE
WOS类目	Ecology ; Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363797
作者单位	[Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R. M.] Univ Durham, Dept Biosci, Durham, England; [Forrest, Matthew; Hickler, Thomas] Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr, Frankfurt, Germany; [Hickler, Thomas] Goethe Univ, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany; [Ohlemueller, Ralf] Univ Otago, Sch Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand; [Singarayer, Joy S.] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; [Valdes, Paul J.] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Clifton, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huntley, Brian,Allen, Judy R. M.,Forrest, Matthew,et al. Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome[J],2021,48(10):2418-2428.
APA	Huntley, Brian.,Allen, Judy R. M..,Forrest, Matthew.,Hickler, Thomas.,Ohlemueller, Ralf.,...&Valdes, Paul J..(2021).Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome.JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY,48(10),2418-2428.
MLA	Huntley, Brian,et al."Projected climatic changes lead to biome changes in areas of previously constant biome".JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 48.10(2021):2418-2428.