干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)

Arid

DOI	10.1080/13504509.2021.1943723
	Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)
	Bolch, Tobias; Duethmann, Doris; Wortmann, Michel; Liu, Shiyin; Disse, Markus
通讯作者	Bolch, T (corresponding author), Univ St Andrews, Sch Geog & Sustainable Dev, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY
ISSN	1350-4509
EISSN	1745-2627
出版年	2021-07
英文摘要	Tarim River basin is the largest endorheic river basin in China. Due to the extremely arid climate the water supply solely depends on water originating from the glacierised mountains with about 75% stemming from the transboundary Aksu River. The water demand is linked to anthropogenic (specifically agriculture) and natural ecosystems, both competing for water. Ongoing climate change significantly impacts the cryosphere. The mass balance of the glaciers in Aksu River basin was clearly negative since 1975. The discharge of the Aksu headwaters has been increasing over the last decades mainly due to the glacier contribution. The average glacier melt contribution to total runoff is 30-37% with an estimated glacier imbalance contribution of 8-16%. Modelling using future climate scenarios indicate a glacier area loss of at least 50% until 2100. River discharge will first increase concomitant with glacier shrinkage until about 2050, but likely decline thereafter. The irrigated area doubled in the Aksu region between the early 1990s and 2020, causing at least a doubling of water demand. The current water surplus is comparable to the glacial runoff. Hence, even if the water demand will not grow further in the future a significant water shortage can be expected with declining glacial runoff. However, with the further expansion of irrigated agriculture and related industries, the water demand is expected to even further increase. Both improved discharge projections and planning of efficient and sustainable water use are necessary for further socioeconomic development in the region along with the preservation of natural ecosystems.
英文关键词	Central Asia Tien Shan Tarim basin Xinjiang glacier changes land use changes water resources hydrological modelling
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000673795600001
WOS关键词	TIEN-SHAN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HEXAGON KH-9 ; MASS-LOSS ; MANAGEMENT ; NORTHWEST ; RUNOFF ; BASIN ; CATCHMENTS ; HYDROLOGY
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Ecology
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363664
作者单位	[Bolch, Tobias] Univ St Andrews, Sch Geog & Sustainable Dev, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland; [Duethmann, Doris] IGB Leibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheri, Dept Ecohydrol, Berlin, Germany; [Wortmann, Michel] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Climate Resilience, Potsdam, Germany; [Liu, Shiyin] Yunnan Univ, Inst Int Rivers & Ecosecur, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China; [Disse, Markus] Tech Univ Munich, Chair Hydrol & River Basin Management, Munich, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bolch, Tobias,Duethmann, Doris,Wortmann, Michel,et al. Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)[J],2021.
APA	Bolch, Tobias,Duethmann, Doris,Wortmann, Michel,Liu, Shiyin,&Disse, Markus.(2021).Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia).INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY.
MLA	Bolch, Tobias,et al."Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY (2021).