干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations

Arid

DOI	10.3389/feart.2021.755041
	Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations
	Dong, Guangtao; Xie, Ye; Wang, Ya; Fan, Dongli; Tian, Zhan
通讯作者	Dong, GT (corresponding author), Shanghai Climate Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China. ; Tian, Z (corresponding author), Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
EISSN	2296-6463
出版年	2021
卷号	9
英文摘要	Based on the outputs of the global climate models (GCMs) HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-LR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the downscaling results with the regional climate model (RCM) REMO, the ability of the climate models to reproduce the extreme precipitation in China during the current period (1986-2005) is evaluated. Then, the future extreme precipitation in the mid (2036-2065) and the late 21st century (2066-2095) is projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results show that the RCM simulations have great improvements compared with the GCMs, and the ensemble mean of the RCM results (ensR) outperforms each single RCM simulation. The annual precipitation of the RCM simulations is more consistent with the observation than that of the GCMs, with the overestimation of the peak precipitation reduced, and the ensR further reduces the bias. For the extreme precipitation, the RCM simulations significantly decrease the underestimation of intensity in the GCMs. The RCM simulations and the ensR can greatly improve the simulations of Rx5day and CWD compared with the GCMs, decreasing the wet bias in North China and Northwest China. In the future, the consecutive dry days (CDD) will decrease in the northern arid regions, especially in North China and Northeast China. However, the southern regions will experience longer dry period. Both the amount and the intensity of precipitation will increase in various regions of China. The number of wet days will decrease in the south and increase in the north area. The significantly greater Rx5day and R95t indicate more intensive extreme precipitation in the future, and the intensity in the late 21st century will be stronger than that in the middle. Attribution analysis indicates that the extreme precipitation indices especially the R95t have significant positive temporal and spatial correlations with the water vapor flux.
英文关键词	precipitation extremes regional climate model dynamical downscaling ensemble projection different GCMs CORDEX-EA-II
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000705083100001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL ; EAST-ASIA DOMAIN ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; RESOLUTION ; CMIP5 ; RCM ; TEMPERATURE ; INDEXES ; REMO
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363292
作者单位	[Dong, Guangtao] Shanghai Climate Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China; [Xie, Ye; Fan, Dongli] Shanghai Inst Technol, Shanghai, Peoples R China; [Wang, Ya] Shanghai Meteorol Disaster Prevent Technol Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China; [Tian, Zhan] Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong, Guangtao,Xie, Ye,Wang, Ya,et al. Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations[J],2021,9.
APA	Dong, Guangtao,Xie, Ye,Wang, Ya,Fan, Dongli,&Tian, Zhan.(2021).Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations.FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE,9.
MLA	Dong, Guangtao,et al."Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations".FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE 9(2021).