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DOI	10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.024
	How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns? A scenario simulation study
	Schulze, Katharina; Malek, Ziga; Verburg, Peter H.
通讯作者	Schulze, K (corresponding author), Vrije Univ, Inst Environm Studies, Environm Geog Dept, De Boelelaan 1111, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
ISSN	1462-9011
EISSN	1873-6416
出版年	2021
卷号	124 页码:254-266
英文摘要	Land degradation is a major global issue and achieving a land degradation-neutral world is one of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, striving for land degradation neutrality (LDN) is challenged by increasing claims on land resources and could result in major land use conflicts. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how LDN can be implemented in land system modelling and how achieving LDN alongside sufficient supplies of food, timber and shelter could affect future land system patterns, using the Republic of Turkey as a case study. We developed a LDN scenario with full implementation of the guidelines and a business-as-usual scenario without pursuing LDN, and compared the resulting differences in land system changes. Additionally, the influence of different elements of the LDN framework on the land use projections was tested. Our results show that although it is possible to achieve LDN in the context of increasing demands for resources and housing, it might require a considerable re-organization of the land systems. Intensification of annual cropland systems was the main driver of new land degradation, which was in the LDN scenario primarily counterbalanced by large areas of afforestation, while other land improvement options only played a minor role. To achieve a no-net-loss, about 20% of Turkey's territory was afforested in our scenario, mainly claiming extensively used annual cropland (-70%) and grassland (-30%). All individual LDN principles had a substantial impact on the final land system patterns meaning that the final outcome is not the result of just one of the principles, it is affected by all. Our findings suggest that pursuing LDN under growing demands for land-based products could stimulate a land sparing approach which might have trade-offs with other sustainability dimensions. This highlights the need for local support and new solutions for rural areas, thereby avoiding poverty, migration and illegal use of restoration areas.
英文关键词	LDN Land use change SDG 15 Life on Land Mediterranean Turkey Agricultural systems Drylands
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000691779600012
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; USE INTENSIFICATION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; DESERTIFICATION ; IMPLEMENTATION ; MANAGEMENT ; DYNAMICS ; BENEFITS ; EROSION ; POLICY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363161
作者单位	[Schulze, Katharina; Malek, Ziga; Verburg, Peter H.] Vrije Univ, Inst Environm Studies, Environm Geog Dept, De Boelelaan 1111, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schulze, Katharina,Malek, Ziga,Verburg, Peter H.. How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns? A scenario simulation study[J],2021,124:254-266.
APA	Schulze, Katharina,Malek, Ziga,&Verburg, Peter H..(2021).How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns? A scenario simulation study.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY,124,254-266.
MLA	Schulze, Katharina,et al."How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns? A scenario simulation study".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY 124(2021):254-266.