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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e38
	Optimality-based modelling of climate impacts on global potential wheat yield
	Qiao, Shengchao; Wang, Han; Prentice, I. Colin; Harrison, Sandy P.
通讯作者	Wang, H (corresponding author), Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modelling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. ; Wang, H (corresponding author), Joint Ctr Global Change Studies JCGCS, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2021
卷号	16 期号:11
英文摘要	Evaluation of potential crop yields is important for global food security assessment because it represents the biophysical 'ceiling' determined by variety, climate and ambient CO2. Statistical approaches have limitations when assessing future potential yields, while large differences between results obtained using process-based models reflect uncertainties in model parameterisations. Here we simulate the potential yield of wheat across the present-day wheat-growing areas, using a new global model that couples a parameter-sparse, optimality-based representation of gross primary production (GPP) to empirical functions relating GPP, biomass production and yield. The model reconciles the transparency and parsimony of statistical models with a mechanistic grounding in the standard model of C-3 photosynthesis, and seamlessly integrates photosynthetic acclimation and CO2 fertilization effects. The model accurately predicted the CO2 response observed in FACE experiments, and captured the magnitude and spatial pattern of EARTHSTAT 'attainable yield' data in 2000 CE better than process-based models in ISIMIP. Global simulations of potential yield during 1981-2016 were analysed in parallel with global historical data on actual yield, in order to test the hypothesis that environmental effects on modelled potential yields would also be shown in observed actual yields. Higher temperatures are thereby shown to have negatively affected (potential and actual) yields over much of the world. Greater solar radiation is associated with higher yields in humid regions, but lower yields in semi-arid regions. Greater precipitation is associated with higher yields in semi-arid regions. The effect of rising CO2 is reflected in increasing actual yield, but trends in actual yield are stronger than the CO2 effect in many regions, presumably because they also include effects of crop breeding and improved management. We present this hybrid modelling approach as a useful addition to the toolkit for assessing global environmental change impacts on the growth and yield of arable crops.
英文关键词	crop model optimality wheat growth potential yield CO2 fertilization climate change impacts
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000709978400001
WOS关键词	TEMPERATURE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS ; USE EFFICIENCY ; EXTINCTION COEFFICIENT ; WARMING TEMPERATURES ; FOOD SECURITY ; GAP ANALYSIS ; CROP ; CO2 ; MANAGEMENT ; LIGHT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	清华大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363159
作者单位	[Qiao, Shengchao; Wang, Han; Prentice, I. Colin; Harrison, Sandy P.] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modelling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; [Qiao, Shengchao; Wang, Han] Joint Ctr Global Change Studies JCGCS, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Prentice, I. Colin] Imperial Coll London, Dept Life Sci, Silwood Pk Campus,Buckhurst Rd, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England; [Prentice, I. Colin] Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia; [Harrison, Sandy P.] Univ Reading, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Sci SAGES, Reading RG6 6AH, Berks, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qiao, Shengchao,Wang, Han,Prentice, I. Colin,et al. Optimality-based modelling of climate impacts on global potential wheat yield[J]. 清华大学,2021,16(11).
APA	Qiao, Shengchao,Wang, Han,Prentice, I. Colin,&Harrison, Sandy P..(2021).Optimality-based modelling of climate impacts on global potential wheat yield.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(11).
MLA	Qiao, Shengchao,et al."Optimality-based modelling of climate impacts on global potential wheat yield".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.11(2021).