干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Drylands face potential threat of robust drought in the CMIP6 SSPs scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac2bce
	Drylands face potential threat of robust drought in the CMIP6 SSPs scenarios
	Li, Hongwei; Li, Zhi; Chen, Yaning; Xiang, Yanyun; Liu, Yongchang; Kayumba, Patient Mindje; Li, Xiaoyang
通讯作者	Li, Z ; Chen, YN (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2021
卷号	16 期号:11
英文摘要	In an increasingly globalized and warming world, drought can have devastating impacts on regional agriculture, water resources, and the ecological environment. Reliable prediction of future drought changes is especially important within the context of rapid warming. However, the extent and future trends of drought changes are variable and incomplete in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Based on the CMIP6 data, we chose the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index to predict future global drought. The results show that when emissions increase under the three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585), the global climate environment becomes drier and drought grow more severe and longer-lasting. Regions already classified as arid will suffer even more severe drought under high-emission SSPs. Specifically, 36.2% of global land will experience increased drought under SSP126, including 67.0% of regions designated as arid, with droughts intensifying significantly. Under SSP585, 68.3% of global land will suffer increased drought, with 93.2% of the arid regions experiencing significant drought intensification. Furthermore, the global duration of drought is estimated to be 4.4 months, 5.7 months, and 8.6 months for the time periods 1960-2000, 2021-2060, and 2061-2100, respectively. Notably, for the SSP585 scenario, regions that are already arid may become universally drought-stricken by the late 21st century. The most severe aridification trends may occur in the arid regions of Australia, Middle East, South Africa, Amazon basin, North Africa, Europe, and Central Asia. Additionally, Europe and the Amazon River Basin are also facing the threat of future drought. Increased aridification will put these regions and countries at risk of further land and ecological degradation, as well as increased poverty. The results of this study have far-ranging implications not only for how we deal with the impacts of climate warming-induced drought disaster, but also for how these impacts affect socio-economic and ecological security.
英文关键词	global warming drought drylands CMIP6 SSPs
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000708201800001
WOS关键词	WATER-RESOURCES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; FEEDBACKS ; IMPACTS ; LAND
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363158
作者单位	[Li, Hongwei; Li, Zhi; Chen, Yaning; Xiang, Yanyun; Liu, Yongchang; Kayumba, Patient Mindje; Li, Xiaoyang] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Li, Hongwei; Xiang, Yanyun; Liu, Yongchang; Kayumba, Patient Mindje; Li, Xiaoyang] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Hongwei,Li, Zhi,Chen, Yaning,et al. Drylands face potential threat of robust drought in the CMIP6 SSPs scenarios[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,16(11).
APA	Li, Hongwei.,Li, Zhi.,Chen, Yaning.,Xiang, Yanyun.,Liu, Yongchang.,...&Li, Xiaoyang.(2021).Drylands face potential threat of robust drought in the CMIP6 SSPs scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(11).
MLA	Li, Hongwei,et al."Drylands face potential threat of robust drought in the CMIP6 SSPs scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.11(2021).