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DOI	10.1002/ecy.3431
	Evaluating probabilistic ecological forecasts
	Simonis, Juniper L.; White, Ethan P.; Ernest, S. K. Morgan
通讯作者	Simonis, JL (corresponding author), Univ Florida, Wildlife Ecol Mil Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. ; Simonis, JL (corresponding author), DAPPER Stats, 3519 NE 15th Ave,Suite 467, Portland, OR 97212 USA.
来源期刊	ECOLOGY
ISSN	0012-9658
EISSN	1939-9170
出版年	2021
卷号	102 期号:8
英文摘要	Probabilistic near-term forecasting facilitates evaluation of model predictions against observations and is of pressing need in ecology to inform environmental decision-making and effect societal change. Despite this imperative, many ecologists are unfamiliar with the widely used tools for evaluating probabilistic forecasts developed in other fields. We address this gap by reviewing the literature on probabilistic forecast evaluation from diverse fields including climatology, economics, and epidemiology. We present established practices for selecting evaluation data (end-sample hold out), graphical forecast evaluation (times-series plots with uncertainty, probability integral transform plots), quantitative evaluation using scoring rules (log, quadratic, spherical, and ranked probability scores), and comparing scores across models (skill score, Diebold-Mariano test). We cover common approaches, highlight mathematical concepts to follow, and note decision points to allow application of general principles to specific forecasting endeavors. We illustrate these approaches with an application to a long-term rodent population time series currently used for ecological forecasting and discuss how ecology can continue to learn from and drive the cross-disciplinary field of forecasting science.
英文关键词	continuous analysis desert pocket mouse ecological forecasting end-sample holdout forecast skill hierarchical Bayes prequential score rule time series validation
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000673070000001
WOS关键词	SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS ; SCORING RULES ; PREDICTION ; ACCURACY
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363019
作者单位	[Simonis, Juniper L.; White, Ethan P.; Ernest, S. K. Morgan] Univ Florida, Wildlife Ecol Mil Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; [Simonis, Juniper L.] DAPPER Stats, 3519 NE 15th Ave,Suite 467, Portland, OR 97212 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Simonis, Juniper L.,White, Ethan P.,Ernest, S. K. Morgan. Evaluating probabilistic ecological forecasts[J],2021,102(8).
APA	Simonis, Juniper L.,White, Ethan P.,&Ernest, S. K. Morgan.(2021).Evaluating probabilistic ecological forecasts.ECOLOGY,102(8).
MLA	Simonis, Juniper L.,et al."Evaluating probabilistic ecological forecasts".ECOLOGY 102.8(2021).