干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The utility of a hybrid GEOMOD-Markov Chain model of land-use change in the context of highly water-demanding agriculture in a semi-arid region

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101332
	The utility of a hybrid GEOMOD-Markov Chain model of land-use change in the context of highly water-demanding agriculture in a semi-arid region
	Andaryani, Soghra; Sloan, Sean; Nourani, Vahid; Keshtkar, Hamidreza
通讯作者	Andaryani, S (corresponding author), Univ Tabriz, Ctr Excellence Hydroinformat, Tabriz, Iran. ; Andaryani, S (corresponding author), Univ Tabriz, Fac Civil Engn, Tabriz, Iran.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS
ISSN	1574-9541
EISSN	1878-0512
出版年	2021
卷号	64
英文摘要	Land change simulation for highly water-demanding crops may prove a valuable tool to guide integrated landand-water management in semi-arid regions facing water scarcity. We explored this premise by mapping and modelling past (1985-2015) and future (2015-2030) orchard development relative to water resources and other factors in Iran. We employed a hybrid GEOMOD-Markov Chain model whereby both the spatial allocation and quantity of orchard development were simulated. By 2030, orchard cover is projected to increase by 20% of its 2015 area, straining limited water resources. To gauge the accuracy of our projection of orchard gain to 2030, we assessed a comparable simulation of orchard gain for 2000-2015 according to the various components the Figure of Merit (FOM) metric. Misses, Hits and False Alarms of simulated orchard gain accounted for 1.84%, 0.45% and 0.74% of the study area respectively over 2000-2015 at a 200-m spatial resolution, for which the FOM was appreciable (15%) given the limited extent of simulated orchard gain and actual orchard cover across the study region (1.2% and 5.3%). With respect to orchard gain, spatial allocation error was more than landchange quantity error at 200-m resolution, at 1.48% and 1.10% of the study area, respectively. Predicting the location of agricultural change remains a priority and challenge for model utility, given scant agricultural footprints in semi-arid regions and their large draw on limited water resources. Results also indicate the importance of incorporating dynamic water availability and demand over the course of agricultural expansion, including shifts in the location preference amongst farmers. The integration of dynamic, agent-based models within our GEOMOD-Markov Chain framework is therefore methodologically appealing, but would adversely increase complexity for policymakers.
英文关键词	Land change Spatial projection Figure of Merit Markov Chain analysis GEOMOD Urmia Lake Iran
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000691790100003
WOS关键词	COVER CHANGE ; VALIDATION ; CLIMATE ; LAKE ; CLASSIFICATION ; DESICCATION ; SIMULATION ; IMPACTS ; CHINA ; URMIA
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/363012
作者单位	[Andaryani, Soghra; Nourani, Vahid] Univ Tabriz, Ctr Excellence Hydroinformat, Tabriz, Iran; [Andaryani, Soghra; Nourani, Vahid] Univ Tabriz, Fac Civil Engn, Tabriz, Iran; [Sloan, Sean] Vancouver Isl Univ, Dept Geog, Nanaimo, BC, Canada; [Keshtkar, Hamidreza] Univ Tehran, Fac Nat Resources, Karaj 1417466191, Iran; [Nourani, Vahid] Near East Univ, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, Near East Blvd,Via Mersin 10, Nicosia, N Cyprus, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andaryani, Soghra,Sloan, Sean,Nourani, Vahid,et al. The utility of a hybrid GEOMOD-Markov Chain model of land-use change in the context of highly water-demanding agriculture in a semi-arid region[J],2021,64.
APA	Andaryani, Soghra,Sloan, Sean,Nourani, Vahid,&Keshtkar, Hamidreza.(2021).The utility of a hybrid GEOMOD-Markov Chain model of land-use change in the context of highly water-demanding agriculture in a semi-arid region.ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS,64.
MLA	Andaryani, Soghra,et al."The utility of a hybrid GEOMOD-Markov Chain model of land-use change in the context of highly water-demanding agriculture in a semi-arid region".ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS 64(2021).