干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108198
	Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments
	Gong, Xinglong; Du, Shuping; Li, Fengyu; Ding, Yibo
通讯作者	Li, FY (corresponding author), Northeast Agr Univ, Sch Water Conservancy & Civil Engn, 600 Changjiang Rd, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2021
卷号	131
英文摘要	Currently, studies analysing the relationship between climatic factors and vegetation may present some problems, including considering insufficient spatiotemporal characteristics, contradictory results and deficiencies in reflecting vegetation changes in the future. To address this, we first analysed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the impact of climatic factors on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a multiple regression model constructed from the perspective of water deficit. Second, the two carbon emission scenarios provided by Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) were combined to predict the future vegetation conditions in China. Finally, trend analysis, Sen's slope and cycle analysis methods were employed to explore the trend of the NDVI and its spatiotemporal characteristics in the arid and semiarid regions of China. The results show that the impact of climate change on vegetation possesses distinct spatiotemporal characteristics, and the influences are different depending on the month and location. Vegetation has greened in most arid and semiarid areas of China during historical periods. In the future, NDVI variation will show a fluctuating tendency, and increasing and declining trends for the NDVI will alternately occur monthly. Although both precipitation and temperature will increase in the future, spring vegetation will be threatened by stress in some areas due to severe drought caused by the increase in evaporation, which is caused by increasing temperature. The impact of climatic factors on the amplitude and cycle of vegetation type zones varies monthly. The impact of carbon concentration on the NDVI in vegetation type zones was not significant but was relatively large in some areas. The influence of the carbon concentration on the NDVI cycle is different each month. Carbon concentration basically has no effect on amplitude.
英文关键词	Changing climate Arid and semiarid regions in China Mesoscale NDVI prediction RCMs Vegetation dynamic analysis
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000704539100003
WOS关键词	VEGETATION COVER VARIATIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MANN-KENDALL ; RIVER-BASIN ; DRIVING FORCES ; DROUGHT ; IMPACTS ; VARIABILITY ; GROWTH ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/362997
作者单位	[Gong, Xinglong; Du, Shuping; Li, Fengyu] Northeast Agr Univ, Sch Water Conservancy & Civil Engn, 600 Changjiang Rd, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China; [Ding, Yibo] Yellow River Engn Consulting Co Ltd, Zhengzhou 450003, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gong, Xinglong,Du, Shuping,Li, Fengyu,et al. Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments[J],2021,131.
APA	Gong, Xinglong,Du, Shuping,Li, Fengyu,&Ding, Yibo.(2021).Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,131.
MLA	Gong, Xinglong,et al."Study of mesoscale NDVI prediction models in arid and semiarid regions of China under changing environments".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 131(2021).