干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936
	Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
	Li, Jiangyue; Chen, Xi; Kurban, Alishir; Van de Voorde, Tim; De Maeyer, Philippe; Zhang, Chi
通讯作者	Zhang, C (corresponding author), Linyi Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Shandong Prov Key Lab Water & Soil Conservat & En, Linyi 276000, Shandong, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2021
卷号	129
英文摘要	Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021-2100) variations in water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation (-4.11% to -19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995-2015), four ESs will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22-0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive correlation (R = 0.47-0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/ recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services.
英文关键词	Ecosystem services (ESs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Future land use simulation (FLUS) Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST)
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000681691400002
WOS关键词	LAND-USE SCENARIOS ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TRADE-OFFS ; URBAN EXPANSION ; YIELD REDUCTION ; RIVER-BASIN ; VEGETATION ; IMPACTS ; EROSION
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/362981
作者单位	[Li, Jiangyue; Chen, Xi; Kurban, Alishir; Zhang, Chi] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Li, Jiangyue] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Li, Jiangyue; Van de Voorde, Tim; De Maeyer, Philippe] Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium; [Li, Jiangyue; Chen, Xi; Kurban, Alishir; De Maeyer, Philippe] Sino Belgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Li, Jiangyue; Kurban, Alishir; Van de Voorde, Tim; De Maeyer, Philippe] Sino Belgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium; [Li, Jiangyue; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Chi] Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Chi] Linyi Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Shandong Prov Key Lab Water & Soil Conservat & En, Linyi 276000, Shandong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Jiangyue,Chen, Xi,Kurban, Alishir,et al. Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,129.
APA	Li, Jiangyue,Chen, Xi,Kurban, Alishir,Van de Voorde, Tim,De Maeyer, Philippe,&Zhang, Chi.(2021).Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,129.
MLA	Li, Jiangyue,et al."Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 129(2021).