干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field

Arid

DOI	10.3390/atmos12070927
	Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field
	Hussain, Jamshad; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur; Ullah, Asmat; Ahmed, Ishfaq; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Gaiser, Thomas; Ahmad, Ashfaq
通讯作者	Rahman, MHU (corresponding author), Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Crop Sci, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. ; Rahman, MHU (corresponding author), MNS Univ Agr, Dept Agron, Multan 60000, Pakistan.
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
EISSN	2073-4433
出版年	2021
卷号	12 期号:7
英文摘要	Rising temperature from climate change is the most threatening factor worldwide for crop production. Sustainable wheat production is a challenge due to climate change and variability, which is ultimately a serious threat to food security in Pakistan. A series of field experiments were conducted during seasons 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in the semi-arid (Faisalabad) and arid (Layyah) regions of Punjab-Pakistan. Three spring wheat genotypes were evaluated under eleven sowing dates from 16 October to 16 March, with an interval of 14-16 days in the two regions. Data for the model calibration and evaluation were collected from field experiments following the standard procedures and protocols. The grain yield under future climate scenarios was simulated by using a well-calibrated CERES-wheat model included in DSSAT v4.7. Future (2051-2100) and baseline (1980-2015) climatic data were simulated using 29 global circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. These GCMs were distributed among five quadrants of climatic conditions (Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Cool/Dry, Cool/Wet, and Middle) by a stretched distribution approach based on temperature and rainfall change. A maximum of ten GCMs predicted the chances of Middle climatic conditions during the second half of the century (2051-2100). The average temperature during the wheat season in a semi-arid region and arid region would increase by 3.52 degrees C and 3.84 degrees C, respectively, under Middle climatic conditions using the RCP 8.5 scenario during the second half-century. The simulated grain yield was reduced by 23.5% in the semi-arid region and 35.45% in the arid region under Middle climatic conditions (scenario). Mean seasonal temperature (MST) of sowing dates ranged from 16 to 27.3 degrees C, while the mean temperature from the heading to maturity (MTHM) stage was varying between 12.9 to 30.4 degrees C. Coefficients of determination (R-2) between wheat morphology parameters and temperature were highly significant, with a range of 0.84-0.96. Impacts of temperature on wheat sown on 15 March were found to be as severe as to exterminate the crop before heading. The spikes and spikelets were not formed under a mean seasonal temperature higher than 25.5 degrees C. In a nutshell, elevated temperature (3-4 degrees C) till the end-century can reduce grain yield by about 30% in semi-arid and arid regions of Pakistan. These findings are crucial for growers and especially for policymakers to decide on sustainable wheat production for food security in the region.
英文关键词	climatic conditions heat stress morphology high temperature CERES-wheat climate change food security
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000675974300001
WOS关键词	WINTER-WHEAT ; CROPPING SYSTEM ; CERES-WHEAT ; HEAT-STRESS ; MANAGEMENT ; YIELD ; PERFORMANCE ; PROJECTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; IRRIGATION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/362624
作者单位	[Hussain, Jamshad; Khaliq, Tasneem] Univ Agr Faisalabad, Dept Agron, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan; [Hussain, Jamshad] Adapt Res Farm, Karor 31100, Pakistan; [Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Gaiser, Thomas] Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Crop Sci, D-53115 Bonn, Germany; [Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur] MNS Univ Agr, Dept Agron, Multan 60000, Pakistan; [Ullah, Asmat] Ayub Agr Res Inst AARI, Directorate Agron, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan; [Ahmed, Ishfaq; Ahmad, Ashfaq] Asian Disaster Preparedness Ctr ADPC, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan; [Ahmad, Ashfaq] Univ Agr Faisalabad, US Pakistan Ctr Adv Studies Agr & Food Secur, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hussain, Jamshad,Khaliq, Tasneem,Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur,et al. Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field[J],2021,12(7).
APA	Hussain, Jamshad.,Khaliq, Tasneem.,Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur.,Ullah, Asmat.,Ahmed, Ishfaq.,...&Ahmad, Ashfaq.(2021).Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field.ATMOSPHERE,12(7).
MLA	Hussain, Jamshad,et al."Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field".ATMOSPHERE 12.7(2021).