干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate Variability and Change Affect Crops Yield under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan

Arid

DOI	10.3390/agronomy11091680
	Climate Variability and Change Affect Crops Yield under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan
	Osman, Maysoon A. A.; Onono, Joshua Orungo; Olaka, Lydia A.; Elhag, Muna M.; Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M.
通讯作者	Osman, MAA (corresponding author), Univ Nairobi, Coll Biol & Phys Sci, Inst Climate Change & Adaptat ICCA, POB 30197, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. ; Osman, MAA (corresponding author), Int Ctr Insect Physiol & Ecol Icipe, POB 30772, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. ; Osman, MAA (corresponding author), Univ Gezira, Fac Forest Sci & Technol, Dept Forestry & Environm, POB 20, Wad Madani 21111, Sudan.
来源期刊	AGRONOMY-BASEL
EISSN	2073-4395
出版年	2021
卷号	11 期号:9
英文摘要	It is projected that, on average, annual temperature will increase between 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C under high emission scenarios by the end of the 21st century, with serious consequences in food and nutrition security, especially within semi-arid regions of sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to investigate the impact of historical long-term climate (temperature and rainfall) variables on the yield of five major crops viz., sorghum, sesame, cotton, sunflower, and millet in Gedaref state, Sudan over the last 35 years. Mann-Kendall trend analysis was used to determine the existing positive or negative trends in temperature and rainfall, while simple linear regression was used to assess trends in crop yield over time. The first difference approach was used to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield. On the other hand, the standardized anomaly index was calculated to assess the variability in both rainfall and temperature over the study period (i.e., 35 years). Correlation and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses were employed to determine the relationships between climatic variables and crops yield. Similarly, a simple linear regression was used to determine the relationship between the length of the rainy season and crop yield. The results showed that the annual maximum temperature (Tmax) increased by 0.03 degrees C per year between the years 1984 and 2018, while the minimum temperature (Tmin) increased by 0.05 degrees C per year, leading to a narrow range in diurnal temperature (DTR). In contrast, annual rainfall fluctuated with no evidence of a significant (p > 0.05) increasing or decreasing trend. The yields for all selected crops were negatively correlated with Tmin, Tmax (r ranged between -0.09 and -0.76), and DTR (r ranged between -0.10 and -0.70). However, the annual rainfall had a strong positive correlation with yield of sorghum (r = 0.64), sesame (r = 0.58), and sunflower (r = 0.75). Furthermore, the results showed that a longer rainy season had significant (p < 0.05) direct relationships with the yield of most crops, while Tmax, Tmin, DTR, and amount of rainfall explained more than 50% of the variability in the yield of sorghum (R-2 = 0.70), sunflower (R-2 = 0.61), and millet (R-2 = 0.54). Our results call for increased awareness among different stakeholders and policymakers on the impact of climate change on crop yield, and the need to upscale adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate variability and change.
英文关键词	temperature rainfall semi-arid environment climate-crop yield relationship
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000699059600001
WOS关键词	GROWING-SEASON ; TEMPERATURE ; ADAPTATION ; AFRICA ; LENGTH ; TRENDS ; ONSET ; DATES
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Plant Sciences
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Plant Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/362424
作者单位	[Osman, Maysoon A. A.; Onono, Joshua Orungo; Olaka, Lydia A.] Univ Nairobi, Coll Biol & Phys Sci, Inst Climate Change & Adaptat ICCA, POB 30197, Nairobi 00100, Kenya; [Osman, Maysoon A. A.; Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M.] Int Ctr Insect Physiol & Ecol Icipe, POB 30772, Nairobi 00100, Kenya; [Osman, Maysoon A. A.] Univ Gezira, Fac Forest Sci & Technol, Dept Forestry & Environm, POB 20, Wad Madani 21111, Sudan; [Onono, Joshua Orungo] Univ Nairobi, Dept Publ Hlth Pharmacol & Toxicol, POB 29053-00625, Nairobi 00100, Kenya; [Olaka, Lydia A.] Univ Nairobi, Coll Phys & Biol Sci, Dept Geol, POB 30197, Nairobi 00100, Kenya; [Elhag, Muna M.] Univ Gezira, Water Management & Irrigat Inst, POB 20, Wad Madani 21111, Sudan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Osman, Maysoon A. A.,Onono, Joshua Orungo,Olaka, Lydia A.,et al. Climate Variability and Change Affect Crops Yield under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan[J],2021,11(9).
APA	Osman, Maysoon A. A.,Onono, Joshua Orungo,Olaka, Lydia A.,Elhag, Muna M.,&Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M..(2021).Climate Variability and Change Affect Crops Yield under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan.AGRONOMY-BASEL,11(9).
MLA	Osman, Maysoon A. A.,et al."Climate Variability and Change Affect Crops Yield under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan".AGRONOMY-BASEL 11.9(2021).