干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化下沙冬青适宜分布区预测

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	气候变化下沙冬青适宜分布区预测
其他题名	Predictionof the Geographic Distribution of Ammopiptanthus mongolicus under Climate Change
	牛若恺; 高润红; 侯艳青; 王旭东; 王彩鑫
来源期刊	西北林学院学报
ISSN	1001-7461
出版年	2021
卷号	36 期号:1 页码:102-107
中文摘要	通过135个地理分布数据,利用MaxEnt生态位模型,选择19项环境因子预测沙冬青未来的分布格局及面积。结果表明:1)模型模拟的训练集和测试集的 AUC值分别为0.990和0.988,模型的预测结果可靠;2)沙冬青主要分布于内蒙古西部地区、宁夏北部、甘肃东部地区以及蒙古国南部;3)模型模拟当前沙冬青的分布面积为6.310~5 km~2,模拟2050年沙冬青的分布面积为9.1 10~5 km~2,沙冬青分布范围和种群面积将呈增加趋势;4)影响沙冬青分布的主要因子为最冷季降水量、最冷月最低气温、最热季降水量、年平均气温、最湿月降水量和年降水。研究结果不仅提供了沙冬青适生分布的划分,也为沙冬青调查与监测提供了重要的科学基础。
英文摘要	Ammopiptanthus mongolicus is the only evergreen broad-leaved shrub in the desert areas of Asia.It is of great scientific value to predict the potential distribution area and suitable distribution area of this plant species.Based on 135 geographical distribution data,19 environmental factors were selected by Max- Ent niche model to predict the future distribution pattern and area of A.mongolicus.The results show that 1)the AUC values of training set and test set simulated by the model were 0.990 and 0.988,indicating the reliable results of MaxEnt model.2)A.mongolicus was mainly distributed in Western Inner Mongolia,Northern Ningxia,Eastern Gansu and Southern Mongolia.3)The current distribution area of A.mongolicus was 6.310~5 km~2,and the distribution area of A.mongolicus in 2050 would be 9.110~5 km~2.The distribution range and area would increase in the future.4)The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of A.mongolicus were the precipitation in the coldest season,the lowest temperature in the coldest month,the precipitation of the hottest season,the annual mean temperature,the precipitation of the most humid month,and annual precipitation.The results of this study not only provide the division of the suitable distribution of A.mongolicus,but also provide important scientific significance for the investigation and monitoring of A.mongolicus.
中文关键词	沙冬青 ; 物种分布 ; 气候变化
英文关键词	MaxEnt MaxEnt Ammopiptanthus mongolicus species distribution climate change
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Forestry
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6899383
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/354489
作者单位	牛若恺, 内蒙古农业大学林学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010019, 中国. 高润红, 内蒙古农业大学林学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010019, 中国. 侯艳青, 内蒙古农业大学林学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010019, 中国. 王旭东, 内蒙古农业大学林学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010019, 中国. 王彩鑫, 内蒙古农业大学林学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010019, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	牛若恺,高润红,侯艳青,等. 气候变化下沙冬青适宜分布区预测[J],2021,36(1):102-107.
APA	牛若恺,高润红,侯艳青,王旭东,&王彩鑫.(2021).气候变化下沙冬青适宜分布区预测.西北林学院学报,36(1),102-107.
MLA	牛若恺,et al."气候变化下沙冬青适宜分布区预测".西北林学院学报 36.1(2021):102-107.