干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 考虑CO_2浓度影响的中国未来干旱趋势变化

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	考虑CO_2浓度影响的中国未来干旱趋势变化
其他题名	Future drought trend in China considering CO_2 concentration
	张更喜; 粟晓玲; 刘文斐
来源期刊	农业工程学报
ISSN	1002-6819
出版年	2021
卷号	37 期号:1
中文摘要	CO_2浓度增加会降低潜在蒸散发量(Potential Evapotranspiration,PET),进而影响依据PET计算的干旱指数结果。为了准确预测未来中国干旱变化情势,该研究以Penman-M onteith(PM)公式计算PET,以标准化降水蒸散发指数(Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)表征干旱,利用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)整合了5个降尺度的CMIP6气候模式数据,分别计算分析了中等强迫(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)气候情景下考虑CO_2影响和未考虑CO_2影响的中国未来干旱趋势。结果表明:未考虑CO_2影响的SPEI呈明显的下降趋势,其中西北地区下降趋势最为显著,干旱面积亦呈最强烈的增加趋势,尤其2070年之后,SSP5-8.5情景下的干旱面积急剧增加,至21世纪末,干旱面积比例超过了80%。青藏高原、东北地区、华中地区和华南地区干旱面积变化趋势较为一致,SSP5-8.5情景下,干旱面积比例呈增加趋势,SSP2-4.5情景下SPEI计算的干旱面积变化无明显趋势;考虑CO_2影响的SPEI计算的干旱面积则呈轻微的缩减趋势,其中华北地区的干旱面积缩减最为显著。SSP5-8.5情景下整个中国地区的干旱面积总体呈增加趋势,至21世纪末,SPEI干旱面积比达40%。但在SSP2-4.5情景下,考虑CO_2影响的SPEI计算的干旱面积则呈缓慢的缩减趋势。在相同情景下,未考虑CO_2影响的干旱指数高估了未来干旱发生状况,CO_2浓度增加缓解了未来干旱,在未来干旱研究中应考虑CO_ 2对干旱趋势的影响,可得出更为合理的研究结论,为水资源管理提供科学依据。
英文摘要	Drought has become a commonly natural hazard in nearly all regions of China,while,it has caused serious destructive effects on agriculture,ecological environment and residents.Climate change is ever increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts.Alternatively,the increase in CO_2 concentration can alleviate the occurrence of droughts,and reduce the drought frequency and severity.Therefore,it is crucial to investigate the occurrence of drought under different climate scenarios and the mitigation effect of increased CO_2 concentration in the future.In this study,the meteorological data were downloaded from 5 GCMs' simulations from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project(CMIP6),and then to downscale using the bias correction and spatial disaggregation(BCSD),finally to integrate the downscaled climatic data using Bayesian modelling averaging(BMA).A drought trend was analyzed considering and without considering the effect of CO_2 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI).The results show that the BMA average model improved the simulation accuracy,and stability of precipitation and temperature.The correlation coefficient with the measured precipitation was greater than 0.8,and that with temperature was greater than 0.98.Both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed a strong warming trend across China.By the end of the 21st century,the temperature increased by 2.7 and 6.2°C under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The precipitation also showed a significant increase across China.The annual precipitation in the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 increased 150 and 50 mm,respectively.The increase of temperature resulted in a continuous increase in the potential evapotranspiration(PET),but the increasing trend of PET considering the influence of CO_2 concentration(PET[CO_2])slowed down significantly.The higher the CO_2 concentration,the more obvious the slowing trend.SPEI presented an obvious downward trend across China,where the downward trend in northwest China was the most significant,with a more severe trend under the SSP5-8.5 scenario than the SSP2-4.5 scenario.The drought area ratio in Northwest China also showed the strongest increasing trend,especially after 2070.By the end of the 21st century,the drought area ratio exceeded 80% under SSP5-8.5 scenario in the northwestern desert of China.The variation trends of the drought area in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,northeastern China,central China,and southern China are more consistent.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the drought area ratio showed an increasing trend,but under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,the drought area ratio calculated by SPEI showed no obvious trend,while the drought area calculated by SPEI[CO_2] showed a slight downward trend.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the drought area ratio of the whole mainland China showed an overall increasing trend,and the drought area ratio calculated by SPEI[CO_2] under the SSP2-4.5 scenario showed a slow downward trend.In conclusion,under the same scenario,the drought index that does not consider the impact of CO_2 overestimates the future occurrence of drought.More efforts may be needed to mitigate the consequent impact there under climate change.The results of this study emphasize the importance that vegetation control land hydrological process through the response to future CO_2 concentration increase,and indicate that the influence of CO_2 on drought trend should be considered in future drought investigation,thereby to offer systematic and scientific fundamentals for the management of water resource.The findings can provide a scientific basis for adaptation strategies to promote drought preparedness and the implementation of reliable warning systems,thereby to quickly mitigate potential impacts of future droughts all over China.
中文关键词	干旱 ; 蒸散发 ; 二氧化碳 ; 气候情景
英文关键词	SPEI drought evapotranspiration SPEI carbon dioxide climate scenarios
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6934771
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/354364
作者单位	张更喜, 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;;西北农林科技大学, ;;旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 杨凌;;杨凌, ;; 712100;;712100. 粟晓玲, 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;;西北农林科技大学, ;;旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 杨凌;;杨凌, ;; 712100;;712100. 刘文斐, 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;;西北农林科技大学, ;;旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 杨凌;;杨凌, ;; 712100;;712100.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张更喜,粟晓玲,刘文斐. 考虑CO_2浓度影响的中国未来干旱趋势变化[J],2021,37(1).
APA	张更喜,粟晓玲,&刘文斐.(2021).考虑CO_2浓度影响的中国未来干旱趋势变化.农业工程学报,37(1).
MLA	张更喜,et al."考虑CO_2浓度影响的中国未来干旱趋势变化".农业工程学报 37.1(2021).