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	基于GWR模型的天山北坡经济带PM_(2.5)浓度反演及时空特征分析
其他题名	Inversion of PM_(2.5) Concentration in the Economic Zone of Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope Based on the GWR Model and the Temporal and Spatial Characteristics
	易唯; 杨东; 李茜荣
来源期刊	地球与环境
ISSN	1672-9250
出版年	2021
卷号	49 期号:1
中文摘要	构建PM_(2.5)浓度与相关因子的关系模型已成为获取干旱区经济带连续变化PM_(2.5)浓度数据的有效手段之一。本文以天山北坡经济带为研究对象 ,基于PM_(2.5)浓度监测数据、中分辨率成像光谱仪(moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer,MODIS)的气溶胶光学厚度数据(aerosol optical depth,AOD)和气象数据,利用地理加权回归模型(geographically weighted regression,GWR)反演了研究区2018年3~11月PM_(2.5)浓度,进而分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)相比多元回归模型(m ultiple linear regression,MLR),GWR模型在天山北坡经济带的PM_(2.5)浓度反演效果更优,决定系数R~2、平均绝对误差MAE和均方根误差RM SE分别为0.897、4.569 mug/m~3和5.627 mug/m~3,明显优于MLR模型的0.819、5.825 mug/m~3和7.731 mug/m~3;(2)天山北坡经济带PM_(2.5)浓度在月尺度上呈"凹字型"变化特征,其中11月最高,达到59.50 mug/m~3,3月和10月次之,9月最低,仅为17.92 mug/m~3;在季节尺度上表现出秋季(9~11月)>春季(3~5月)>夏季(6~8月)的变化特征,其中春季呈波动下降趋势,夏季总体维持在较低水平,秋季呈急剧上升趋势;(3)在空间分布上,研究区PM_(2.5)浓度呈现出"东高西低"的特征,峰值出现在乌鲁木齐附近,说明经济带东部地区PM_ (2.5)污染相对严重,尤其是乌鲁木齐。
英文摘要	Constructing a model for the relationship between PM_(2.5) concentration and related factors has been regarded as one effective means to obtain the continuously PM_(2.5) concentration data in the economic zone of arid regions. In this study, the Economic Zone in Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope was taken as the research object. Based on the data of monitored PM_(2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth(AOD) acquired by the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) and the meteorological data, the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) was used to invert the PM_(2.5) concentration in the study area from March to November in 2018, furthermore, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) compared with the multiple linear regression model(MLR), the inversion effect of PM_(2.5) concentration by using the GWR model in the Economic Zone of Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope illustrated a better result, and the coefficient of determination R~2, mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.897, 4.569 mug/m~3 and 5.627 mug/m~3, respectively, which were remarkably better than 0.819, 5.825 mug/m~3 and 7.731 mug/m~3 of MLR model; (2) the PM_(2.5) concentration in the Economic Zone of Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope indicated a concave type for the monthly time-scale, with the highest in November (59.50 mug/m~3), then followed by March and October, and the lowest in September (17.92 mug/m~3). For different seasons, it decreases in the order of autumn (September-November)>spring(March-May)>summer(June-August), and a characteristic of fluctuation with downward trend in spring, stable at a low level in summer, sharply increase in autumn, was observed; (3) in terms of spatial distribution, the PM_(2.5) concentration in the study area displayed the characteristics of "higher in the east and lower in the west", and the peak value appeared near Urumqi, indicating that the PM_(2.5) pollution in the eastern part of the economic belt was relatively serious, especially in Urumqi.
中文关键词	地理加权回归模型 ; 天山北坡经济带 ; PM_(2.5)浓度反演 ; 时空特征
英文关键词	geographically weighted regression model the Economic Zone of Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope inversion of PM_(2.5) concentration temporal and spatial characteristics
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6900995
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/354221
作者单位	易唯, 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国. 杨东, 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国. 李茜荣, 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	易唯,杨东,李茜荣. 基于GWR模型的天山北坡经济带PM_(2.5)浓度反演及时空特征分析[J],2021,49(1).
APA	易唯,杨东,&李茜荣.(2021).基于GWR模型的天山北坡经济带PM_(2.5)浓度反演及时空特征分析.地球与环境,49(1).
MLA	易唯,et al."基于GWR模型的天山北坡经济带PM_(2.5)浓度反演及时空特征分析".地球与环境 49.1(2021).