干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究

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	基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究
其他题名	Prediction of agricultural drought in China based on Meta-Gaussian model
	吴海江; 粟晓玲; 张更喜
来源期刊	地理学报
ISSN	0375-5444
出版年	2021
卷号	76 期号:3 页码:0375-5444
中文摘要	在全球气候变化背景下,干旱愈加频发,有效且可靠的农业干旱预测对于保障粮食安全和水资源安全具有重要意义。以标准化降水指数(SPI)和联合标准化土壤湿度指数(JSSI)分别表征气象干旱和农业干旱,以前期的气象干旱和农业干旱指数作为预测因子,在1~3个月预见期下基于Meta-Gaussian(MG)模型对中国1961-2015年6-8月的农业干旱进行预测,并采用Brier Skill Score(BSS)和纳什效率系数(NSE)评价MG模型的预测性能。结果表明:①将1个月、3个月、6个月、9个月和12个月时间尺度的标准化土壤湿度指数(SSI)结合起来得到的JSSI能够对中国农业干旱的综合状况进行客观评价。②以中国2010年和2014年遭受严重的干旱事件为例,预见期为1~3个月时,除新疆南部、青海西部以及内蒙古西部等沙漠地区外,MG模型对6-8月农业干旱预测结果的分布范围与实际干旱的分布区域较吻合,预见期越短,吻合越好。③预见期为1个月时,6-8月BSS ≥ 0.5的面积比例分别为0.714、0.642和0.640,NSE ≥ 0.5的面积比例分别为0.903、0.829和0.837,表明MG模型能够对中国大部分区域的农业干旱作出可靠的预测。本文结果可为中国农业干旱的监测、预警及干旱决策提供科学指导。
英文摘要	It is predicted that many regions will witness higher frequencies of drought events under global climate change,which could pose a threat to crop yield and water security.Therefore,the development of efficient and reliable methods for agricultural drought prediction is crucial.This study used the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)based on monthly precipitation at a 6-month time scale as an indicator of meteorological drought.The Joint Standardized Soil Moisture Index(JSSI)was used to assess the comprehensive situation of agricultural drought and was derived by combining the Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSI)over 1-,3-,6-,9-,and 12-month time scales based on monthly root zone soil moisture.Using the antecedent SPI and the persistent JSSI as predictors,the Meta-Gaussian(MG)model was applied to predict agricultural drought in China from June to August in 1961-2015.The Brier Skill Score(BSS)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient(NSE)were adopted for the evaluation of the prediction performance of the MG model.The results showed that the JSSI was capable of capturing both emerging and prolonged agricultural droughts in a timely manner,which is significant for agricultural drought monitoring.The spatial distribution of predictions of severe agricultural droughts with the 1-to 3-month lead by the JSSI for June to August in 2010 and 2014 resembled the corresponding observations for most parts of China.Moreover,the areas with a predicted higher probability of JSSI falling below-0.5 corresponded well with areas that experienced agricultural drought according to observed data(JSSI <-0.5).The BSS and NSE results confirmed that the MG model was able to provide reliable predictions of agricultural drought for June to August in most parts of China.The prediction of JSSI from June to August by the MG model with the 1-month lead showed that the proportions of the total area with BSS ≥ 0.5 were 0.714,0.642,and 0.640,respectively,whereas the proportions of the total area with NSE ≥ 0.5 were 0.903,0.829,and 0.837,respectively.However,the MG model performed poorly in desert areas,including southern Xinjiang,western Qinghai and western Inner Mongolia,which may have been due to the extremely arid conditions of these regions with soil water mostly related to condensation water rather than rainfall.The results of this study can provide scientific basis for agricultural drought monitoring,early warning,and decision-making in China.
中文关键词	农业干旱 ; 干旱预测 ; 预测概率 ; Meta-Gaussian模型
英文关键词	agricultural drought drought prediction prediction probability Meta-Gaussian model
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6943131
来源机构	西北农林科技大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/354208
作者单位	吴海江, 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;;西北农林科技大学, ;;旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 杨凌;;杨凌, ;; 712100;;712100.; 粟晓玲, 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;;西北农林科技大学, ;;旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 杨凌;;杨凌, ;; 712100;;712100.; 张更喜, 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 杨凌, 712100.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	吴海江,粟晓玲,张更喜. 基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究[J]. 西北农林科技大学,2021,76(3):0375-5444.
APA	吴海江,粟晓玲,&张更喜.(2021).基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究.地理学报,76(3),0375-5444.
MLA	吴海江,et al."基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究".地理学报 76.3(2021):0375-5444.