干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化对河西绿洲农业的影响及对策

Arid

	气候变化对河西绿洲农业的影响及对策
其他题名	Impact of Climatic Change on the Agriculture in Hexi Oasis and Countermeasures
	姚玉璧; 刘吉宁; 张民; 赵继锋; 李强; 李东林; 李裕; 张秀云
来源期刊	生态环境学报
ISSN	1674-5906
出版年	2020
卷号	29 期号:8
中文摘要	气候变暖和区域降水变化给河西绿洲农业生产带来严峻挑战。认识气候变化特征及其对农业的影响,提出应对措施,可为区域农业应对气候变化提供科学依据。基于河西绿洲气象观测资料,分析河西绿洲近58年(19612018年)气候变化特征,对比讨论气候变化对河西绿洲农业的主要影响,提出河西绿洲农业应对气候变化的适应技术对策。结果表明,近58年,河西绿洲区年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,气温变化倾向率为0.364 ℃·(10 a)~(-1),年平均气温于20世纪70年初开始持续上升,年平均气温上升突变点出现在1997年。年降水量年际变化也呈显著上升趋势,降水量变化倾向率为4.341 mm·(10 a)~(-1),降水量于20世纪60年代开始上升,降水量上升突变点为2006年。气候变暖使河西绿洲作物生长季延长,春小麦、玉米的出苗期、生育期缩短,成熟期提前;作物适宜种植区和可以种植区海拔增加,多熟制北移,夏粮面积缩小,秋粮面积增大。弱冬性、中晚熟品种逐步取代强冬性、中早熟品种;玉米中晚熟品种种植适宜区上限高度已由海拔1 500 m提升到海拔1 800 m左右。未来气候变化对绿洲农业发展利弊共存。夏季降水增多会增加径流量,山区降雪会增加冰川储水量;气温增高,有效积温增加,无霜期延长,复种指数提高 ;但是,气候变暖使灾害性天气的极端性增加,危害加重,对设施农业、大田生产造成的损失增加。要严格控制人工绿洲面积,提高土地生产力;优化农业产业结构 ,发展高效绿洲生态农业种植模式;加快特色农业建设,优化农业经济结构;依靠科技提升核心竞争力,逐步提高农业现代化水平;研究绿洲生态系统演变机理和驱动机制,维护绿洲生态系统平衡;发展节水生态农业,建立绿洲多元化复合种植结构;发展绿洲及过渡带舍饲畜牧业,延长生态产业链。通过上述的措施,科学开发利用气候资源,减缓气候变暖的不利影响,应对气候变化。
英文摘要	As climatic warming and regional rainfall changing are challenging the agriculture in Hexi Oasis,understanding the features of climatic change and its impact on agriculture,and bringing forward countermeasures can provide scientific basis for the response of regional agriculture to climatic change.This paper,based on the meteorological observation data of Hexi Oasis,analyzes the features of climatic change in Hexi Oasis during the recent 58 a (1961-2018),makes a comparison and discussion on the main impact of climatic change on the agriculture in Hexi Oasis,and proposes some adaptive technological countermeasures for the response of agriculture in Hexi Oasis to the climatic change.The result showed that the mean annual temperature in Hexi Oasis had increased significantly in the past 58 years,and the temperature change tendency rate was 0.364 ℃·(10 a)~(-1).The mean annual temperature started to rise continuously from the beginning of the 1970s,and the sudden change point of the mean annual temperature appeared in 1997;the interannual variation of annual rainfall had also increased significantly,the rainfall change tendency rate was 4.341 mm·(10 a)~(-1),and the rainfall started to rise from the 1960s,and the sudden change point of rainfall was in 2006.Climatic warming had prolonged the growing stage of crops in Hexi Oasis,shortened the seedling emergence stage and growth stage of spring wheat and maize,and advanced the maturing state;the elevation (a.s.l.) of suitable planting areas and plantable areas had increased,the multiple cropping system had moved northwards,the area of summer grains had decreased while the area of autumn grains had increased.Weak wintering and mid-late maturing crops had gradually replaced strong wintering and mid-early maturing crops,and the upper limit elevation of suitable planting areas for mid-late maturing maize had increased from 1 500 m to about 1 800 m.Future climatic change will be both advantageous and disadvantageous for the agricultural development in the Oasis.Increased summer rainfall will enlarge the runoff,and snowfall in mountains will enlarge the glacial water storage;temperature rising will increase the effective heat accumulation,and the prolonged frost-free period will improve the multiple cropping index;however,climatic warming will increase the extremeness of disaster weathers,aggravate the disaster,and enlarge the losses caused to facility agriculture and field production.It is necessary to improve the productivity of land by strictly controlling the area of man-made oasis;develop high efficiency oasis eco-agricultural planting mode by optimizing the industrial structure of agriculture;accelerate the construction of featured agriculture and optimize the economic structure of agriculture;gradually upgrade the agricultural modernization by improving the core competitiveness depending on science and technology;study the evolution mechanism and driving mechanism of oasis ecosystem to maintain the balance of the oasis ecosystem;develop water-saving ecological agriculture,establish a diversified and integrated oasis planting structure;promote confined animal husbandry in the oasis and transitional belt,extend the ecological industry chain,explore and use the climate resources scientifically,and mitigate the adverse effect of climate warming to cope with the climate change.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 影响 ; 对策 ; 河西绿洲
英文关键词	climatic change impact countermeasures Hexi Oasis
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6832272
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/353733
作者单位	姚玉璧, 兰州资源环境职业技术学院;;中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, ;;甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室;;中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 兰州;;兰州, 甘肃;;甘肃 730021;;730020, 中国. 刘吉宁, 兰州资源环境职业技术学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730021, 中国. 张民, 兰州资源环境职业技术学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730021, 中国. 赵继锋, 兰州资源环境职业技术学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730021, 中国. 李强, 兰州资源环境职业技术学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730021, 中国. 李东林, 兰州资源环境职业技术学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730021, 中国. 李裕, 西北民族大学, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国. 张秀云, 甘肃省定西市气象局, 定西, 甘肃 743000, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	姚玉璧,刘吉宁,张民,等. 气候变化对河西绿洲农业的影响及对策[J],2020,29(8).
APA	姚玉璧.,刘吉宁.,张民.,赵继锋.,李强.,...&张秀云.(2020).气候变化对河西绿洲农业的影响及对策.生态环境学报,29(8).
MLA	姚玉璧,et al."气候变化对河西绿洲农业的影响及对策".生态环境学报 29.8(2020).