干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015e2099

Arid

	Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015e2099
	Li Suyuan; Miao Lijuan; Jiang Zhihong; Wang Guojie; Gnyawali Kaushal Raj; Zhang Jing; Zhang Hui; Fang Ke; He Yu; Li Chun
来源期刊	气候变化研究进展
ISSN	1674-9278
出版年	2020
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Northwest China is one of the most arid regions in the world and has experienced intriguing climate warming and humidification. Nonetheless, future climate conditions in Northwest China still remain uncertain. In this study, we applied an ensemble of the 12 latest model simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess future drought conditions until 2099 in Northwest China, as inferred from the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Future drought conditions were projected under three climate change scenarios through the combination of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely, SSP126 (SSP1 + RCP2.6, a green development pathway), SSP245 (SSP2 + RCP4.5, an intermediate development pathway), and SSP585 (SSP5 + RCP8.5, a high development pathway). For 2015e2099, drought severity showed no trend under SSP126, in contrast, for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, a rapid increase during 2015e2099 was observed, especially under SSP585. We also found that the drought frequency in Northwest China under SSP585 was generally lower than that under SSP126 and SSP245, although the drought duration under SSP585 tended to be longer. These findings suggest the green development pathway in drought mitigation and adaptation strategies in Northwest China, an arid and agricultural region along the Silk Road.
英文关键词	Climate change Drought CMIP6 PDSI Dryland Northwest China
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Science & Technology - Other Topics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6874437
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/353709
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Suyuan,Miao Lijuan,Jiang Zhihong,et al. Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015e2099[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Li Suyuan.,Miao Lijuan.,Jiang Zhihong.,Wang Guojie.,Gnyawali Kaushal Raj.,...&Li Chun.(2020).Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015e2099.气候变化研究进展,11(3).
MLA	Li Suyuan,et al."Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015e2099".气候变化研究进展 11.3(2020).