干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 数据处理方法对中国区域平均降水序列精度的影响

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	数据处理方法对中国区域平均降水序列精度的影响
其他题名	The influence of data processing on constructing regional average precipitation time series
	战云健; 任国玉; 王朋岭
来源期刊	气候变化研究进展
ISSN	1673-1719
出版年	2019
卷号	15 期号:6
中文摘要	利用地面观测站点资料研究大范围地区的降水长期变化规律,选取不同的指标会使分析结果出现显著差异。利用中国大陆区域内2139个国家站的逐日降水资料, 比较不同数据处理方法得到全国和中国西部、中国东部地区的降水量、降水日数和降水强度的区域平均时间序列,探讨对其变化趋势估算的偏差。研究表明,195 11957年估算的中国区域平均降水量原始值出现虚假的偏高,使趋势估算出现较大误差;19512016年中国西部地区平均降水量距平百分率时间序列的波动幅度显著偏大;区域平均降水量、降水日数和降水强度的距平和标准化距平序列较为可信。全国平均降水量、降水日数的原始值和距平值序列都基本反映了中国东部湿润地区降水的变化,降水量距平百分率的变化主要由西部干燥区域的降水变化构成,降水量标准化距平则可综合反映湿润和干燥地区的降水变化。
英文摘要	The selection of different anomaly indicators will make a significant difference to study the longterm variation of precipitation in a wide range of areas using surface observation data. Daily precipitation data of 2139 national stations in the Chinese mainland were used to construct the regional average time series of precipitation, precipitation days and precipitation intensity, obtained from different indicators. These series were compared to explore the deviation of the long-term trend estimation in precipitation for western China, eastern China, and the entire China. The results shows that from 1951 to 1957, the regional average raw values of precipitation, precipitation days, and precipitation intensities in China had spuriously high biases due to the lack of data from stations in western China, which caused large deviations in the linear trend estimates from 1951 to 2016. In western China, the time series of the regional average precipitation anomaly percentages had excessive fluctuations. The changes in series of anomalies and normalized anomalies were reasonable in every region. The regional average time series of the original values and anomaly values of precipitation amount and days of the entire China basically reflected the precipitation changes in the humid regions in eastern China, while the precipitation anomaly percentages were mainly composed of the precipitation changes in the arid regions. Normalized anomaly could comprehensively reflect the precipitation changes in humid regions and arid regions.
中文关键词	区域平均 ; 指标 ; 降水量 ; 时间序列 ; 气候变化
英文关键词	Regional average Indicator Precipitation Time series Climate change
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6622862
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/353255
作者单位	战云健, 中国气象局国家气象信息中心, 北京 100081, 中国. 任国玉, 中国气象局国家气候中心;;(武汉)中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系, ;;, ;;武汉, 北京;; 100081;;430074, 中国. 王朋岭, 中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	战云健,任国玉,王朋岭. 数据处理方法对中国区域平均降水序列精度的影响[J],2019,15(6).
APA	战云健,任国玉,&王朋岭.(2019).数据处理方法对中国区域平均降水序列精度的影响.气候变化研究进展,15(6).
MLA	战云健,et al."数据处理方法对中国区域平均降水序列精度的影响".气候变化研究进展 15.6(2019).