干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan

Arid

DOI	10.1038/s43016-020-00214-4
	Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan
	Iizumi, Toshichika; Ali-Babiker, Imad-Eldin A.; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Tahir, Izzat S. A.; Kurosaki, Yasunori; Kim, Wonsik; Gorafi, Yasir S. A.; Idris, Amani A. M.; Tsujimoto, Hisashi
通讯作者	Iizumi, T (corresponding author), Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
来源期刊	NATURE FOOD
EISSN	2662-1355
出版年	2021
卷号	2 期号:1 页码:19-27
英文摘要	Climate warming poses challenges for food production at low latitudes, particularly in arid regions. Sudan, where wheat demand could triple by 2050, has the world's hottest wheat-growing environments, and observed yield declines in hot seasons are prompting the national government to prepare for a warming of 1.5-4.2 degrees C. Using advanced crop modelling under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios, we show that despite the use of adjusted sowing dates and existing heat-tolerant varieties, by 2050, Sudan's domestic production share may decrease from 16.0% to 4.5-12.2%. In the relatively cool northern region, yields will need to increase by 3.1-4.7% per year, at non-compounding rates, to meet demand. In the hot central and eastern regions, improvements in heat tolerance are essential, and yields must increase by 0.2-2.7% per year to keep pace with climate warming. These results indicate the potential contribution of climate change adaptation measures and provide targets for addressing the wheat supply challenge. Sudan faces population growth to 80 million people, rising temperatures and trebling in demand for wheat by 2050. Crop modelling under climate and socioeconomic scenarios indicates the regional rates of yield growth that must be achieved by breeding heat-tolerant varieties to adapt wheat production to climate change and increased demand.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000610665900010
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CROP ROTATIONS ; REPRESENTATION ; MAIZE ; YIELD ; RICE
WOS类目	Food Science & Technology
WOS研究方向	Food Science & Technology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/352923
作者单位	[Iizumi, Toshichika; Kim, Wonsik] Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; [Ali-Babiker, Imad-Eldin A.; Gorafi, Yasir S. A.] Agr Res Corp, Khartoum, Sudan; [Ali-Babiker, Imad-Eldin A.; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Kurosaki, Yasunori; Gorafi, Yasir S. A.; Tsujimoto, Hisashi] Tottori Univ, Arid Land Res Ctr, Tottori, Japan; [Tahir, Izzat S. A.; Idris, Amani A. M.] Agr Res Corp, Wad Madani, Sudan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Iizumi, Toshichika,Ali-Babiker, Imad-Eldin A.,Tsubo, Mitsuru,et al. Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan[J],2021,2(1):19-27.
APA	Iizumi, Toshichika.,Ali-Babiker, Imad-Eldin A..,Tsubo, Mitsuru.,Tahir, Izzat S. A..,Kurosaki, Yasunori.,...&Tsujimoto, Hisashi.(2021).Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan.NATURE FOOD,2(1),19-27.
MLA	Iizumi, Toshichika,et al."Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan".NATURE FOOD 2.1(2021):19-27.