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DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06202
	Influence of heat stress on milk production and its financial implications in semi-arid areas of South Africa
	Ogundeji, Abiodun A.; Lakew, Hermela; Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael; Lombard, Willem
通讯作者	Ogundeji, AA (corresponding author), Univ Free State, Dept Agr Econ, Bloemfontein, South Africa.
来源期刊	HELIYON
EISSN	2405-8440
出版年	2021
卷号	7 期号:2
英文摘要	Heat stress affects dairy cows' feed intake, reproductive system and milk production. This study analysed the financial implications of heat stress for small scale milk producers. The semi-arid regions of the Free State - Bloemfontein, Bothaville, and Bethlehem were selected for the study. To estimate the impact of heat stress on milk production, baseline (1950-1999) and mid-century (2040-2070) climate data and Temperature Humidity Index thresholds (THIthershold) of 70 and 65 were used. Mid-century data with no adaptation strategy resulted in a doubled loss, while moderate heat-mitigation strategies (wetting and forced ventilation) resulted in positive improvements in milk production and income of farmers. Results show strong polynomial correlations (R-2 of 0.73-0.79) between the T-max and milk-production losses where above T-max of 25 degrees C, milk-production loss increased sharply. The combined average loss of milk production during the hot summer was estimated at 0.35 liters per cow in a day, which is equivalent to ZAR1.27 per cow per day. With changing climate, the highest revenue loss was recorded in the MPI_ESM_MR future climate scenario. Moreover, results from the questionnaires show that heat stress reduces farmers' milk production significantly in the summertime, and for most of the respondents, measures that should be taken are too costly to apply. Exhaustive analysis of the economic impacts of heat stress on milk production is recommended for future studies, as it is an important sector in alleviating household food insecurity in South Africa.
英文关键词	Climate change Heat stress Milk production Economic loss Revenue loss Perception Adaptation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000625326700003
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/352833
作者单位	[Ogundeji, Abiodun A.; Lakew, Hermela; Lombard, Willem] Univ Free State, Dept Agr Econ, Bloemfontein, South Africa; [Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael] Univ Free State, Dept Soil Crop & Climate Sci, Bloemfontein, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ogundeji, Abiodun A.,Lakew, Hermela,Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael,et al. Influence of heat stress on milk production and its financial implications in semi-arid areas of South Africa[J],2021,7(2).
APA	Ogundeji, Abiodun A.,Lakew, Hermela,Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael,&Lombard, Willem.(2021).Influence of heat stress on milk production and its financial implications in semi-arid areas of South Africa.HELIYON,7(2).
MLA	Ogundeji, Abiodun A.,et al."Influence of heat stress on milk production and its financial implications in semi-arid areas of South Africa".HELIYON 7.2(2021).