干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future changes in climate indices relevant to agriculture in the Aegean islands (Greece)

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DOI	10.1007/s41207-020-00233-4
	Future changes in climate indices relevant to agriculture in the Aegean islands (Greece)
	Kitsara, Gianna; van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos
通讯作者	Kitsara, G (corresponding author), Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev, Natl Observ Athens, Athens 15236, Greece.
来源期刊	EURO-MEDITERRANEAN JOURNAL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION
ISSN	2365-6433
EISSN	2365-7448
出版年	2021
卷号	6 期号:1
英文摘要	The Aegean islands, characterized by strong relief and low vegetation cover, are listed as a region of high desertification risk. Impacts of climate change are expected to affect significantly agricultural production and the local economy. In this paper, projections derived from seven regional climate models (RCMs) are used to examine future climate changes in the Aegean area to identify areas most vulnerable to climate change and to prioritize future interventions in the agricultural sector. Changes in climate indices, derived from the mean ensemble of the seven RCMs, are examined under the medium mitigation (RCP4.5) and the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the control (1971-2000), near (2031-2060) and distant (2071-2100) future periods. Ensemble results are calibrated against the long-term historical meteorological record of Naxos Island in the central Cyclades. Annual averaged maximum and minimum temperatures show increases of about 1.5 degrees C (RCP4.5) or 2.1 degrees C (RCP8.5) in the near future and almost 2.2 degrees C (RCP4.5) or 4.5 degrees C (RCP8.5) in the distant future across the Aegean. Hot days and very hot days (days with T-max > 30 degrees C and T-max > 35 degrees C, respectively) which negatively affect plant growth are projected to increase considerably, especially in the distant future. Hot days will be more frequent by 30-60 days/year (RCP4.5-RCP8.5), and very hot days by about 10-30 days/year (RCP4.5-RCP8.5) across the Aegean for the period 2071-2100. Total annual precipitation decreases significantly throughout the Aegean islands in the distant future, by 15-25%, while increases in the maximum length of dry spells are projected. Under both RCP scenarios they will last about 100 days, which is 20 days more than in the reference period. Results of this study feed into recommendations for adaptation measures that are to be integrated into agricultural policy which is formulated by the TERRACESCAPE project.
英文关键词	Regional climate models Ensemble mean Future climate change Aegean Greece
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000619221100001
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/352805
作者单位	[Kitsara, Gianna; van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos] Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev, Natl Observ Athens, Athens 15236, Greece
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kitsara, Gianna,van der Schriek, Tim,Varotsos, Konstantinos V.,et al. Future changes in climate indices relevant to agriculture in the Aegean islands (Greece)[J],2021,6(1).
APA	Kitsara, Gianna,van der Schriek, Tim,Varotsos, Konstantinos V.,&Giannakopoulos, Christos.(2021).Future changes in climate indices relevant to agriculture in the Aegean islands (Greece).EURO-MEDITERRANEAN JOURNAL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION,6(1).
MLA	Kitsara, Gianna,et al."Future changes in climate indices relevant to agriculture in the Aegean islands (Greece)".EURO-MEDITERRANEAN JOURNAL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION 6.1(2021).