干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Arid

DOI	10.3724/SP.J.1226.2020.00389
	Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region
	Lu, YanRan; Jiang, Tong; Wang, YanJun; Su, BuDa; Huang, JinLong; Tao, Hui
通讯作者	Jiang, T (corresponding author), Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Disaster Risk Management, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	SCIENCES IN COLD AND ARID REGIONS
ISSN	1674-3822
出版年	2020
卷号	12 期号:6 页码:389-403
英文摘要	Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4- 3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 degrees C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 degrees C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 degrees C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.
英文关键词	precipitation temperature actual evaporation multi-models CMIP6 SSPs-RCPs Belt and Road Region
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000608477500007
WOS类目	Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/352690
作者单位	[Lu, YanRan; Jiang, Tong; Wang, YanJun; Su, BuDa; Huang, JinLong] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Disaster Risk Management, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; [Tao, Hui] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, YanRan,Jiang, Tong,Wang, YanJun,et al. Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2020,12(6):389-403.
APA	Lu, YanRan,Jiang, Tong,Wang, YanJun,Su, BuDa,Huang, JinLong,&Tao, Hui.(2020).Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region.SCIENCES IN COLD AND ARID REGIONS,12(6),389-403.
MLA	Lu, YanRan,et al."Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region".SCIENCES IN COLD AND ARID REGIONS 12.6(2020):389-403.