干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas in the Summertime

Arid

DOI	10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2020.52.3.8
	Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas in the Summertime
	Al-Jiboori, Monim H.; Abu Al-Shaeer, Mahmoud J.; Hassan, Ahemd S.
通讯作者	Al-Jiboori, MH (corresponding author), Mustansiriyah Univ, Coll Sci, Atmospher Sci Dept, Baghdad, Iraq.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCES
ISSN	2337-5760
出版年	2020
卷号	52 期号:3 页码:353-365
英文摘要	Based on historical observations of daily maximum temperature, minimum air temperature and wind speed during the summertime for the period from 2004 to 2018, measured at time 0600 GMT, a non-linear regression hypothesis was developed for forecasting daily maximum air temperature (Tm.) in arid areas with a hot climate and no rain events or cloud cover, for example around Baghdad International airport station. Observations with dust storm events were excluded, so this hypothesis could be used to predict daily Tmax at any day during the summertime characterized by fair weather. Using the mean annual daily temperature range, the daily minimum temperature and the trend of maximum temperature with wind speed, Tmax values were forecasted and then compared to those recorded by meteorological instruments. To improve the accuracy of the hypothesis, daily forecast errors, biases and mean absolute error were analyzed to detect their characteristics by calculating relative frequencies of occurrence. Based on this analysis, a value of-0.45 oC was added to the hypothesis as a bias term.
英文关键词	bias daily temperature range maximum air temperature mean absolute error non-linear regression equation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000648668800005
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/352634
作者单位	[Al-Jiboori, Monim H.; Hassan, Ahemd S.] Mustansiriyah Univ, Coll Sci, Atmospher Sci Dept, Baghdad, Iraq; [Abu Al-Shaeer, Mahmoud J.] Al Rafidain Univ Coll, Baghdad, Iraq
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Al-Jiboori, Monim H.,Abu Al-Shaeer, Mahmoud J.,Hassan, Ahemd S.. Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas in the Summertime[J],2020,52(3):353-365.
APA	Al-Jiboori, Monim H.,Abu Al-Shaeer, Mahmoud J.,&Hassan, Ahemd S..(2020).Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas in the Summertime.JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCES,52(3),353-365.
MLA	Al-Jiboori, Monim H.,et al."Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas in the Summertime".JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCES 52.3(2020):353-365.