干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-SA over Pakistan

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s13143-021-00231-8
	Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-SA over Pakistan
	Haider, Sajjad; Ullah, Kalim
通讯作者	Ullah, K (corresponding author), COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Meteorol, Pk Rd, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan.
来源期刊	ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
ISSN	1976-7633
EISSN	1976-7951
出版年	2021
英文摘要	Agro-climatic classification systems based on aridity help to distinguish various features of aridity in different agro-climatic regions around the world revealing potentially serious implications for water and agriculture sectors in light of climate change. This study probed historical and projected variations and shifts in agro-climatic zones associated with dispersion in Probability Density Functions (PDF) for daily temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation extremes over Pakistan. In this study, a single-model RCM simulation and projection from the output of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA) data were used to evaluate these parameters for three-time spans: near future (2011-2040), mid future (2041-2070), and end of century (2071-2100); each under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) after bias-correction for the observed baseline data (1971-2000). The data was collected from 49 weather stations. Future projections based on the used Regional Climate Model (RCM) predicted major changes in extremely arid and semi-arid zones of Pakistan in the future. In terms of statistical moments, the highest magnitude change was noted in the median and mean of the Tmax which increased as much as 5.1 degrees C, and the 90th percentile of the Tmin increased by up to 6.5 degrees C under the RCP8.5 by the end of this century in arid and the extremely arid zones. Similarly, the greatest magnitude of change in the precipitation was projected to increase more than 3.3 mm/day under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in semi-arid zones by the end of the present century. Projected shifts in agro-climatic zones are coupled with associated changes in the statistical moments of the PDFs for drought and extreme precipitation events in agro-climatic zones in response to climate change.
英文关键词	Agro-climatic zones Climate change Aridity Probability density function RCPs CORDEX-SA
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000618149000001
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/352070
作者单位	[Haider, Sajjad; Ullah, Kalim] COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Meteorol, Pk Rd, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan; [Haider, Sajjad] Pakistan Meteorol Dept, Islamabad, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haider, Sajjad,Ullah, Kalim. Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-SA over Pakistan[J],2021.
APA	Haider, Sajjad,&Ullah, Kalim.(2021).Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-SA over Pakistan.ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.
MLA	Haider, Sajjad,et al."Historical and Projected Shift in Agro-Climatic Zones and Associated Variations of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes using CORDEX-SA over Pakistan".ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2021).