干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Arid

DOI	10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0036.1
	Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change
	Gorris, Morgan E.; Neumann, James E.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Sheahan, Megan; Sarofim, Marcus C.
通讯作者	Gorris, ME (corresponding author), Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA.
来源期刊	WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
ISSN	1948-8327
EISSN	1948-8335
出版年	2021
卷号	13 期号:1 页码:107-123
英文摘要	Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000-15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were $400,000 per case, and the annual average total cost was $3.9 billion per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost $620,000 per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change-attributable damages in the United States. Significance StatementValley fever is a disease that is most common in the hot and arid regions of the southwestern United States and already costs billions of dollars in disease treatment and lost worker productivity, with consequences that include premature death. The purpose of our work was to estimate the impact that climate change may have on the total costs to society from valley fever. We found that there will likely be a tripling of valley fever cases in the future and that the average cost per case will increase, causing total yearly costs to rise from $3.9 billion per year (2000-15 estimate) to $18.5 billion per year by 2090. Our estimations of the future number of valley fever cases and total costs may help to inform public health decision-makers to begin monitoring the number of disease cases and prepare appropriate medical supplies.
英文关键词	Climate services Decision support Disease Economic value Planning Risk assessment
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze, Green Accepted, Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000665787800009
WOS关键词	RISK-FACTORS ; DUST STORM ; CALIFORNIA ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; GENERATION ; ARIZONA ; ILLNESS ; COST
WOS类目	Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351997
作者单位	[Gorris, Morgan E.] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA; [Neumann, James E.; Sheahan, Megan] Ind Econ Inc, Cambridge, MA USA; [Kinney, Patrick L.] Boston Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA; [Sarofim, Marcus C.] US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gorris, Morgan E.,Neumann, James E.,Kinney, Patrick L.,et al. Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change[J],2021,13(1):107-123.
APA	Gorris, Morgan E.,Neumann, James E.,Kinney, Patrick L.,Sheahan, Megan,&Sarofim, Marcus C..(2021).Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change.WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,13(1),107-123.
MLA	Gorris, Morgan E.,et al."Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change".WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY 13.1(2021):107-123.