干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty

Arid

DOI	10.3390/su13063152
	Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty
	Housh, Mashor; Aharon, Tomer
通讯作者	Housh, M (corresponding author), Univ Haifa, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Management, IL-3498838 Haifa, Israel.
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
EISSN	2071-1050
出版年	2021
卷号	13 期号:6
英文摘要	The common practices for the planning and management of Water Resources Systems (WSSs) have been challenged in the last few decades by global climate change processes, which are observed around the world in increasing frequencies. Climate change is manifested by climate variability, temperature increase, and extreme events such as droughts and floods, which have a decisive effect on natural resource availability and in turn on water quality. Historical records may not be sufficient to reliably account for uncertain future predictions under climate change conditions. While such highly uncertain situations become the normal case worldwide, the traditional practices of probabilistic risk measures cannot be used to appropriately quantify the uncertain phenomena under non-stationarity conditions. To better account for uncertain future conditions, the objective of this study is to develop a water management model based on Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) using optimization under deep uncertainty conditions. The Info-Gap theory is a framework that measures the confidence in the operational decisions by quantifying the robustness to uncertainty without accounting for any probabilistic data. To demonstrate the method as a tool to better guide the long-term sustainable operation of the water supply system under uncertain future conditions, we applied the Info-Gap model to the Sea of Galilee (SoG) regional WSS, which is a significant part of the Israeli National Water System (INWS). For Israel, which is, like other Middle East semi-arid regions, prone to dry conditions and limited water availability, there are well-founded concerns that prolonged periods of drought lie ahead, as a consequence of the global climate change processes. This study contributes a management tool for decision making under deep uncertainty to improve the decision-making process and better adapt to unpredictable uncertain future conditions. We demonstrate how the IGDT could be formulated and used to analyze WSSs under different settings and demonstrate how decisions could be derived from the IGDT formulation. We also show a sensitivity analysis for the obtained solutions.
英文关键词	Water Resources Systems Info-Gap Decision Theory uncertainty climate change Sea of Galilee
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000646076400001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351824
作者单位	[Housh, Mashor; Aharon, Tomer] Univ Haifa, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Management, IL-3498838 Haifa, Israel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Housh, Mashor,Aharon, Tomer. Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty[J],2021,13(6).
APA	Housh, Mashor,&Aharon, Tomer.(2021).Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty.SUSTAINABILITY,13(6).
MLA	Housh, Mashor,et al."Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty".SUSTAINABILITY 13.6(2021).