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DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-89564-y
	Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions
	Portele, Tanja C.; Lorenz, Christof; Dibrani, Berhon; Laux, Patrick; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald
通讯作者	Portele, TC (corresponding author), Karlsruhe Inst Technol KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, Campus Alpin, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. ; Portele, TC (corresponding author), Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Augsburg, Germany.
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN	2045-2322
出版年	2021
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	Increasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 for decision making in water management. For seven drought-prone regions analyzed in America, Africa, and Asia, the relative frequency of drought months significantly increased from 10 to 30% between 1981 and 2018. We demonstrate that seasonal forecast-based action for droughts achieves potential economic savings up to 70% of those from optimal early action. For very warm months and droughts, savings of at least 20% occur even for forecast horizons of several months. Our in-depth analysis for the Upper-Atbara dam in Sudan reveals avoidable losses of 16 Mio US$ in one example year for early-action based drought reservoir operation. These findings stress the advantage and necessity of considering seasonal forecasts in hydrological decision making.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000658822200018
WOS关键词	PROBABILISTIC WEATHER FORECASTS ; HIGH-RESOLUTION ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; MULTIMODEL ; DROUGHT ; SKILL ; HYDROPOWER ; ENSEMBLES ; SYSTEM
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351697
作者单位	[Portele, Tanja C.; Lorenz, Christof; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald] Karlsruhe Inst Technol KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, Campus Alpin, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany; [Dibrani, Berhon] Tractebel Engn GmbH, Bad Vilbel, Germany; [Portele, Tanja C.; Laux, Patrick; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald] Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Augsburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Portele, Tanja C.,Lorenz, Christof,Dibrani, Berhon,et al. Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions[J],2021,11(1).
APA	Portele, Tanja C.,Lorenz, Christof,Dibrani, Berhon,Laux, Patrick,Bliefernicht, Jan,&Kunstmann, Harald.(2021).Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,11(1).
MLA	Portele, Tanja C.,et al."Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 11.1(2021).