干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Conjugate evaluation of sustainable carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and multi-scenario policy regulation

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147373
	Conjugate evaluation of sustainable carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and multi-scenario policy regulation
	Gao, Qian; Fang, Chuanglin; Liu, Haimeng; Zhang, Lifang
通讯作者	Fang, CL (corresponding author), Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Urumqi 830046, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2021
卷号	785
英文摘要	The scientific evaluation of carrying capacity and the formulation of adaptive regulation policies are powerful ways to achieve sustainable development goals. In order to quantitatively and accurately diagnose the sustain-able development state of urban agglomeration, this paper responds to the Future Earth framework; takes the carrying capacity as the breakthrough point; embeds the conjugate thought; considers the elements of the resources, the environment, the ecology, and the development; and establishes the conjugate evaluation model and the evaluation index system of sustainable carrying capacity. In order to solve the actual bottleneck problem of urban agglomeration, this work identifies the key obstacle factors, constructs the multi-scenario dy-namic coupling (MSDC) model, recognizes the sensitivity policies, and proposes the adaptive regulation polices. Taking the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM) in arid areas as a case study, it was found that from 2007 to 2017, the carrying capacity gradually increased, and the sustainable development showed a benign transformation trend in the UANSTM. It will also be in a transitional stage of growth from now to 2035, and the steady development of the economy and the society and the good mainte-nance of the resources, the environment and the ecology are equally important. The policies on population inter-vention and on the management of water resources play a vital role, and the speed of economic development should be controlled throughout the whole process. The study confirms that the effective regulation is necessary for the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration in the future, and the key lies in improving techno-logical progress and governance policy support. It is expected that this new and complete research framework for the conjugate evaluation of the sustainable carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and multi-scenario policy regulation can be applied to other regions or urban agglomerations in developing countries and can make a pos-sible breakthrough in promoting the theoretical exploration and practice of sustainable development. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Sustainable carrying capacity Conjugate evaluation Multi-scenario dynamic coupling model Policy regulation Urban agglomeration Northern slope of Tianshan Mountains
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000659457100003
WOS关键词	YANGTZE-RIVER DELTA ; EVALUATION MODEL ; ECO-ENVIRONMENT ; LAND-USE ; SYSTEM ; EVOLUTION ; GROWTH ; LIMITS ; SPACE ; SAFE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 ; 新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351680
作者单位	[Gao, Qian; Fang, Chuanglin; Zhang, Lifang] Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Urumqi 830046, Peoples R China; [Gao, Qian] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Fang, Chuanglin; Liu, Haimeng] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Qian,Fang, Chuanglin,Liu, Haimeng,et al. Conjugate evaluation of sustainable carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and multi-scenario policy regulation[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 新疆大学,2021,785.
APA	Gao, Qian,Fang, Chuanglin,Liu, Haimeng,&Zhang, Lifang.(2021).Conjugate evaluation of sustainable carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and multi-scenario policy regulation.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,785.
MLA	Gao, Qian,et al."Conjugate evaluation of sustainable carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and multi-scenario policy regulation".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 785(2021).