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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146777
	Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios
	Ma, Xiaofei; Zhu, Jianting; Yan, Wei; Zhao, Chengyi
通讯作者	Zhao, CY (corresponding author), Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Land Sci Res Ctr, 219 Ningliu Rd, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2021
卷号	781
英文摘要	Central Asia (CA) is a core area of global desertification, but the effect of the intensifying global greening policy on the desertification process under global warming scenarios in CA remains unclear. Based on multi-source remote sensing data and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2b dimate data, this study investigated desertification in CA using actual evapotranspiration (ETa), temperature and precipitation as driving factors. Coupling with the CA-Markov model, the inversion method of desertification was improved, and the evolution normal form of desertification in CA was proposed. Finally, spatio-temporal variations of desertification in CA were quantified. The results indicate that temperature, precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in CA increased during the historical period (1980-2015), with sudden changes in 1994. In contrast, although ETa exhibited fluctuating inaeases (7.41 mm/10 yr) during this period, no sudden changes were observed in 1994. In the future (2006-2099), the climate of CA will become warmer and wetter. With reference to 1980-2005, precipitation under global warming of 2.0 degrees C (GW2.0) will be higher than that under global warming of 1.5 degrees C (GW1.5) by 10.3 mm, and ETa will increase by 20.88 mm and 27.54 mm under GW1.5 and GW2.0, respectively. Although the area of desert lands has decreased (5.94 x 10(4) km(2) / 10 yr). the area of potential desert lands has increased (0.17 x 10(4) km(2)/ 10 yr). With global warming, this situation will continue to intensify, mainly in Xinjiang of China, and Kazakhstan. The Aral Sea plays an important role in the desertification of CA. The potential increase in desert land under GW2.0 is equivalent to the current water area of the Aral Sea. The findings could provide policy support for combating desertification in CA and promoting the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Global change ecology Global warming Desertification Central Asia Aral Sea Actual evapotranspiration
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000655619900009
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; 1.5 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; AEOLIAN DESERTIFICATION ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; MONITORING DESERTIFICATION ; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; SATELLITE IMAGERY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351672
作者单位	[Ma, Xiaofei] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, 818 Beijing South Rd, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Ma, Xiaofei] Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia, 818 Beijing South Rd, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Chengyi] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; [Ma, Xiaofei] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Zhu, Jianting] Univ Wyoming, Dept Civil & Architectural Engn, Laramie, WY 82071 USA; [Yan, Wei] Xinyang Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Xinyang 464000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Xiaofei,Zhu, Jianting,Yan, Wei,et al. Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2021,781.
APA	Ma, Xiaofei,Zhu, Jianting,Yan, Wei,&Zhao, Chengyi.(2021).Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,781.
MLA	Ma, Xiaofei,et al."Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 781(2021).