干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Analysis and prediction of land cover changes using the land change modeler (LCM) in a semiarid river basin, Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1002/ldr.3969
	Analysis and prediction of land cover changes using the land change modeler (LCM) in a semiarid river basin, Iran
	Khoshnood Motlagh, Sajad; Sadoddin, Amir; Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Ghorbani, Khalil
通讯作者	Sadoddin, A (corresponding author), Gorgan Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Watershed Management, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran.
来源期刊	LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT
ISSN	1085-3278
EISSN	1099-145X
出版年	2021
卷号	32 期号:10 页码:3092-3105
英文摘要	Predicting future land cover (LC) changes is an important step in the proper planning and management of watersheds. As a susceptible area to salinity and desertification, receiving only about 195 mm rainfall annually, the Hable-Rud River basin is especially sensitive to land use/cover changes. Based on corrected LANDSAT satellite images for the years 1986, 2000, and 2017, the LC were extracted using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. LC changes were predicted by applying the land change modeler (LCM) for the basin. The kappa index for classification in 1986, 2000, and 2017 was 75, 78, and 81%, respectively. Using LCM, the prediction was accomplished for the year 2017 with a kappa index of above 74%. The LC map was predicted for year 2040. The analysis indicates that over the past 32 years, bare land, saline land, agricultural, industrial, and residential areas have increased by about 8, 6.2, 2.7, 0.63, and 0.48%, respectively; while rangeland area was decreased by 18%. Results also indicate that given the predicted LC for year 2040 in comparison with the reference year (2017), saline land, agricultural, industrial, and residential areas will be likely to continue to increase by about 3, 1.5, 0.7, and 0.8%, respectively, whereas bare land and rangeland will most likely decrease by about 4.55 and 1.45%, respectively. The findings of this study assist in analyzing the future trends of LC changes in the basin. This information can be used as a guide for land planners and managers in future land use planning of the area.
英文关键词	Hable‐ Rud River basin land change modeler land change prediction remote sensing semiarid river basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000648904500001
WOS关键词	AUTOMATA-MARKOV-CHAIN ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; WILDLIFE SANCTUARY ; WATER-QUALITY ; URBAN-RENEWAL ; GIS ; MULTICRITERIA ; LANDSCAPE ; SYSTEM
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Soil Science
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/351084
作者单位	[Khoshnood Motlagh, Sajad; Sadoddin, Amir] Gorgan Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Watershed Management, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran; [Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman] Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; [Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul] Gorgan Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Environm, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran; [Ghorbani, Khalil] Gorgan Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Water Engn, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khoshnood Motlagh, Sajad,Sadoddin, Amir,Haghnegahdar, Amin,et al. Analysis and prediction of land cover changes using the land change modeler (LCM) in a semiarid river basin, Iran[J],2021,32(10):3092-3105.
APA	Khoshnood Motlagh, Sajad,Sadoddin, Amir,Haghnegahdar, Amin,Razavi, Saman,Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul,&Ghorbani, Khalil.(2021).Analysis and prediction of land cover changes using the land change modeler (LCM) in a semiarid river basin, Iran.LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,32(10),3092-3105.
MLA	Khoshnood Motlagh, Sajad,et al."Analysis and prediction of land cover changes using the land change modeler (LCM) in a semiarid river basin, Iran".LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT 32.10(2021):3092-3105.